Amy Fiscus drops by the podcast to talk about the first episode of HBO 24/7: Road to the Winter Classic. Lots of spoilers, FYI.
Download this episode (right click and save)
Copy this address to your podcatcher or aggregator http://aisaguirre.podbean.com/feed/
Or check out this page for complete subscription options.
As a son of the Midwest, I grew up watching the classic battles of the Norris Division. This blog is my tribute to the frozen game. It's a place for me to share thoughts and ideas about the sport I love above all others. I've invited friends to post their thoughts here as well. I hope you enjoy. - Adam
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Drop Pass: Episode 3
Hey, everyone. Thanks for all the interest in the podcast. I know some of you have been looking for ways to subscribe. The easiest way is to visit this page and use one of those options.
Also, I have a new episode! This is kind of a double episode since I'll be tied up over the holidays and won't likely get another episode out until after Thanksgiving.
In this episode Amy Fiscus drops by the Center of the Universe to talk Stamkos, the Olympics and Bobby Orr's new book.
Also, I have a new episode! This is kind of a double episode since I'll be tied up over the holidays and won't likely get another episode out until after Thanksgiving.
In this episode Amy Fiscus drops by the Center of the Universe to talk Stamkos, the Olympics and Bobby Orr's new book.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Drop Pass podcast: Episode 2
Hot off the digital presses, episode two of the Drop Pass podcast.
Amy once again calls into the Center of the Universe to talk puck. We chat about early season surprises, trades, advanced stats and more. Check it out!
Download this episode (right click and save)
Amy once again calls into the Center of the Universe to talk puck. We chat about early season surprises, trades, advanced stats and more. Check it out!
Download this episode (right click and save)
Thursday, October 24, 2013
A beating, well deserved
As a Red Wings fan, I've been happy to see them near the top of the divisional standings. But there was little doubt the biggest factor in their early season success was luck.
Early on, Detroit was falling far below it's normal puck possession numbers, while also getting one of the best even strength save percentages in the league. This translated into winning despite being out-shot and out-chanced in most games. So the blown lead in Phoenix, the scoreless game against San Jose, and now the complete spanking at the hands of Ottawa were all overdue.
My hope is this losing streak will finally result in some tough decisions the team has put off. Detroit is over the salary cap and over the roster limit, but has been allowed to exceed those limits due to injuries. And I think that has actually hurt Detroit.
The Red Wings have not dressed their best lineup yet this season.
Being over the roster limit has meant Gustav Nyquist started the season in Grand Rapids. Nyquist was one of the brightest revelations of the playoffs last year and proved he belongs in the NHL. Yet until Detroit moves some players Nyquist is stuck in the minors due to the fact that he's exempt from roster waivers (at least until he plays two more NHL games). So Nyquist continues to dominate the minors, where he has 7 points in 5 games, while Detroit struggles to get secondary scoring.
Another player who should be a staple of the lineup is Tomas Tatar. The 2013 AHL playoff MVP has had to ride the pine most of the year. But in the three games he has played, Tatar has consistently moved the play to the offensive zone, doubling up shot attempts for versus shot attempts against (14-7). And this is despite the fact that his shifts have started in the offensive zone only 27% of the time, third lowest among forwards on the team.
Tatar is 22, the age when most players enter their prime years. He played four full seasons in the AHL. Nyquist is 24! If these guys are not yet ready to play in the big show, then they never will be. Has Detroit kept Tatar out of the lineup simply to showcase other players who will eventually be traded? I sure hope that's the reasoning.
When the last season ended I assumed Drew Miller was done with the Red Wings, and I hoped Dan Cleary would follow him out the door.
I've got nothing against Miller really, he's a serviceable fourth-liner. He kills penalties. But the Red Wings fourth line has been getting killed in possession numbers the past few seasons. And our penalty kill hasn't exactly been lights out.
The real reason I thought Miller had to go was because Detroit had Patrick Eaves under contract and they're basically mirror images (right down to one shooting left and the other shooting right). On top of that, Detroit has young players in the system who can fill his role right now. But the Red Wings shocked me and signed Miller for another three years. OK, then!
My fear with Dan Cleary was that the Red Wings would offer him the contract he turned down from Philadelphia. Thank goodness he was tempted by it and waited until Detroit had no cap space left before he re-signed. A one-year deal under $2 million is much closer to fair value. I do think Cleary is taking minutes and power play time from young players, but given that he left around $6 million on the table by coming to Detroit, there's little question he'll be hanging around all season. I'm trying to be OK with this despite the fact that he's on pace to score 14 points for the season.
So with those two guys signed, and Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Alfredsson, and Weiss not going anywhere, who is left?
Cory Emmerton is already back to Grand Rapids where he belongs. And luckily Luke Glendening and Joakim Andersson have pretty much made certain he'll stay there.
I can't see the Red Wings trading Todd Bertuzzi. Although the old gangster is 38 and injury prone, he's still armed with great hands and a no trade clause. Our list is getting shorter.
The only remaining forwards to move are Patrick Eaves, Jordin Tootoo, Mikael Samuelsson. And each presents an obstacle to a trade.
Patrick Eaves is probably the most enticing of the three. He's only got a year left on his deal and is a solid third-fourth line player. But he hasn't been consistently healthy in three years. As I mentioned before, he's also redundant to Drew Miller. So the Wings will probably extend him for another three years.
Jordin Tootoo is a pugnacious energy guy who had ah good offensive year and doesn't seem to mind getting punched in the face by all the much bigger tough guys in the league. But man, he's getting almost $4 million from now until the end of next season. That's a good chunk of change for someone playing 6 minutes a night. If Detroit is able to deal Tootoo, I have a feeling the return will consist of retained salary and a conditional draft pick so conditional that it never actually materializes.
And finally Mikael Samuelsson. At least he's in a contract year? Unfortunately, that next contract is probably coming from the KHL. Sammy also has a no-trade clause, so he might just veto any move. It would not be shocking after the offseason rumors that said he planned to contest a contract buyout if Detroit tried anything.
Basically, what I'm trying to say is, who would want any of these guys? Ken Holland is in a tough spot now because he's cautiously waited and waited to let the prospects get into the lineup. While he waited he just couldn't resist tossing in an extra year for Bertuzzi, Samuelsson and Tootoo, and he couldn't stand parting with Miller or Cleary. But the waiting needs to stop, it's way past decision time.
Early on, Detroit was falling far below it's normal puck possession numbers, while also getting one of the best even strength save percentages in the league. This translated into winning despite being out-shot and out-chanced in most games. So the blown lead in Phoenix, the scoreless game against San Jose, and now the complete spanking at the hands of Ottawa were all overdue.
My hope is this losing streak will finally result in some tough decisions the team has put off. Detroit is over the salary cap and over the roster limit, but has been allowed to exceed those limits due to injuries. And I think that has actually hurt Detroit.
Give the kids a chance
The Red Wings have not dressed their best lineup yet this season.
Being over the roster limit has meant Gustav Nyquist started the season in Grand Rapids. Nyquist was one of the brightest revelations of the playoffs last year and proved he belongs in the NHL. Yet until Detroit moves some players Nyquist is stuck in the minors due to the fact that he's exempt from roster waivers (at least until he plays two more NHL games). So Nyquist continues to dominate the minors, where he has 7 points in 5 games, while Detroit struggles to get secondary scoring.
Another player who should be a staple of the lineup is Tomas Tatar. The 2013 AHL playoff MVP has had to ride the pine most of the year. But in the three games he has played, Tatar has consistently moved the play to the offensive zone, doubling up shot attempts for versus shot attempts against (14-7). And this is despite the fact that his shifts have started in the offensive zone only 27% of the time, third lowest among forwards on the team.
Tatar is 22, the age when most players enter their prime years. He played four full seasons in the AHL. Nyquist is 24! If these guys are not yet ready to play in the big show, then they never will be. Has Detroit kept Tatar out of the lineup simply to showcase other players who will eventually be traded? I sure hope that's the reasoning.
But who needs to go?
When the last season ended I assumed Drew Miller was done with the Red Wings, and I hoped Dan Cleary would follow him out the door.
I've got nothing against Miller really, he's a serviceable fourth-liner. He kills penalties. But the Red Wings fourth line has been getting killed in possession numbers the past few seasons. And our penalty kill hasn't exactly been lights out.
The real reason I thought Miller had to go was because Detroit had Patrick Eaves under contract and they're basically mirror images (right down to one shooting left and the other shooting right). On top of that, Detroit has young players in the system who can fill his role right now. But the Red Wings shocked me and signed Miller for another three years. OK, then!
My fear with Dan Cleary was that the Red Wings would offer him the contract he turned down from Philadelphia. Thank goodness he was tempted by it and waited until Detroit had no cap space left before he re-signed. A one-year deal under $2 million is much closer to fair value. I do think Cleary is taking minutes and power play time from young players, but given that he left around $6 million on the table by coming to Detroit, there's little question he'll be hanging around all season. I'm trying to be OK with this despite the fact that he's on pace to score 14 points for the season.
So with those two guys signed, and Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Alfredsson, and Weiss not going anywhere, who is left?
Cory Emmerton is already back to Grand Rapids where he belongs. And luckily Luke Glendening and Joakim Andersson have pretty much made certain he'll stay there.
I can't see the Red Wings trading Todd Bertuzzi. Although the old gangster is 38 and injury prone, he's still armed with great hands and a no trade clause. Our list is getting shorter.
The only remaining forwards to move are Patrick Eaves, Jordin Tootoo, Mikael Samuelsson. And each presents an obstacle to a trade.
Patrick Eaves is probably the most enticing of the three. He's only got a year left on his deal and is a solid third-fourth line player. But he hasn't been consistently healthy in three years. As I mentioned before, he's also redundant to Drew Miller. So the Wings will probably extend him for another three years.
Jordin Tootoo is a pugnacious energy guy who had ah good offensive year and doesn't seem to mind getting punched in the face by all the much bigger tough guys in the league. But man, he's getting almost $4 million from now until the end of next season. That's a good chunk of change for someone playing 6 minutes a night. If Detroit is able to deal Tootoo, I have a feeling the return will consist of retained salary and a conditional draft pick so conditional that it never actually materializes.
And finally Mikael Samuelsson. At least he's in a contract year? Unfortunately, that next contract is probably coming from the KHL. Sammy also has a no-trade clause, so he might just veto any move. It would not be shocking after the offseason rumors that said he planned to contest a contract buyout if Detroit tried anything.
Basically, what I'm trying to say is, who would want any of these guys? Ken Holland is in a tough spot now because he's cautiously waited and waited to let the prospects get into the lineup. While he waited he just couldn't resist tossing in an extra year for Bertuzzi, Samuelsson and Tootoo, and he couldn't stand parting with Miller or Cleary. But the waiting needs to stop, it's way past decision time.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Drop Pass Podcast: Episode 1
The season is in week two and I still haven't updated this blog, what's up with that? Well, actually, I've been busy putting together a new hockey podcast. Check it out!
I think it's going to be on iTunes like a real, live podcast.
In episode 1, Amy calls into the Center of the Universe to talk hockey, friendship and understanding the Flyers thought process.
Download it here.
Still figuring everything out. Hope you enjoy!
I think it's going to be on iTunes like a real, live podcast.
In episode 1, Amy calls into the Center of the Universe to talk hockey, friendship and understanding the Flyers thought process.
Download it here.
Still figuring everything out. Hope you enjoy!
Friday, July 5, 2013
Red Wings free agent curveball
After the initial free agency flurry, let's take a look at the Red Wings moves today.
First off, the Red Wings had three free agents they could try to resign. Valtteri Filppula, Danny Cleary and Damien Brunner.
For months there have been reports that Filppula wanted a minimum of $5 million a year. He eventually got that from Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightening in a five year contract. I have to say, Yzerman may not be cut out to be a GM. This is not a good deal. Filppula is turning 30 next year and has scored more than 40 points once in his career. For some perspective, Ryan Kesler, James Neal, Bobby Ryan, and David Krejci all have cap hits in the $5 million a year range and are all vastly superior players.
Still, this means Detroit is losing around 37 points a year, and a player strong defensively and in the faceoff dot.
It looks like Brunner is likely heading out after the other signings by Detroit. The 27-year-old showed great offensive skill, if sometimes inconsistently, in his "rookie" season last year. If you add his playoff numbers to the lockout-shortened season totals Brunner had about 0.6 points a game. If he can sustain that pace going forward, that's about 50 points a season. That could be a big blow to Detroit's offense and depth. Of course, that is a small sample size, and no guarantee that he'll deliver that next season. On top of that, he's a bit one-dimensional. He can't take faceoffs or play on the penalty kill. And he was prone to carelessness with the puck at times. Still, it's too bad Detroit could not figure out a way to retain him.
As I've said before, Cleary is a frustrating player. He's had some great years with Detroit and has been the type of guy to chip in 10 goals a year. But my issue recently has been that he hasn't been paid like a guy chipping in 10 goals a year. The 34-year-old looks like he is slowing down and is likely going to be battling some type of injury on and off for the rest of his career. On top of that, the Red Wings have a lot of prospects coming up through the system and every second Cleary plays is a second a young forward is not getting an opportunity. And finally, the Red Wings already have players filling a similar role under contract (Todd Bertuzzi and Mikael Samuelsson). My best guess is the Wings will lose at most 30 points a year from Cleary if he is not resigned.
All-in-all, that's anywhere from 110 to 120 points of offense leaving Detroit. So let's look at who is coming in to replace that.
Well, I really didn't see that one coming. I'm not sure anyone expected Alfredsson to leave the Ottawa Senators after 17 seasons. And yet he'll be pulling on a Red Wings jersey next season and Ottawa will now be his divisional rival. Alfredsson is the classic old dude who is a shadow of himself type of player Detroit loves to lure away from other teams. This reminded me a lot of the Mike Modano signing a few years back, but it might work out a little bit better.
It's hard to say what the 40-year-old has left in the tank. Playing on an injury-riddled, undermanned Senators team last year, Alfredsson put up just 26 points. Two years ago he scored 27 goals and 59 points. Despite the dip in his offensive numbers last year, Alfredsson remained a strong puck possession player with a corsi of just over 12, which would have been good for 5th among Red Wings forwards last year, just behind Filppula.
Taking a pessimistic view that Alfredsson's lower points per game rate is here to stay, and considering his age, the Red Wings can probably expect about 70 games and 40 points from the right winger next season. I consider this a solid move by the Red Wings. $2 million of Alfredsson's salary is contingent on performance bonuses, meaning that money will not count against the cap until next year if the goals are achieved. I also like that this is a one year deal, so the Wings are not locked into losing a roster space for a prospect who is ready to join the team.
This was definitely Detroit's biggest move of the day. Weiss pretty much got the money Filppula wanted. His five-year contract actually pays half-a-million less. And that surprised me, because unlike Fil who has scored more than 40 points just once, Weiss has only once failed to break 40 points in the past seven seasons (and that was due to injury). In fact, remove last year's injury-shortened season and Weiss averaged almost 53 points a year for six seasons. Of course, Weiss recently turned 30, so his numbers are likely to begin trending lower, but he will be moving to a much better team than the Florida Panthers. At least for next season I think it's safe to expect 50 points from the center and likely 53% in the faceoff dot.
So Alfredsson and Weiss will hopefully contribute about 90 points next year, meaning Detroit still needs to add around 20-30 points just to make up for the departing players. Where will that offense come from? Two places: Veterans getting healthy and young players scoring more.
Last season Detroit had one of the highest number of man-games lost to injury in the league. A big part of that was the near total lack of games played by Bertuzzi, Samuelsson and Helm. If those players returned to the line up, they would bring roughly 40, 30 and 25 points a piece with them. That would more than close the gap left by the departing forwards. But they are not all likely to remain on the team. That is because Detroit's prospects are finally forcing themselves into roster spots.
Did you blink? If you did, you probably missed Detroit's rebuild. The Red Wings are stocked with both defensive and forward prospects, as well as one of the best goalies in the AHL. And those players are just starting to force themselves onto the Red Wings roster. Tomas Tatar was excellent in his call up to the Red Wings and when he was sent back down he went on to win the MVP of the AHL playoffs. Gustav Nyquist and Joakim Andersson have also earned places on the team. Those two are without contracts so far, which means the Wings will soon be up to 16 forwards signed for 2013-14, and that's two too many.
My best guess/hope is that Detroit tries to trade at least two of the following: Samuelsson, Jordin Tootoo, or Cory Emmerton. Losing any of those players would have almost no impact on the team. And they take up $5.4 million in cap space. Those players or cap space could be used to add a final defenseman and/or upgrade other positions.
Considering some of the contracts handed out today, the Red Wings did pretty well. They did not hurt themselves with overly long or big contracts. They gave themselves space to allow their young players to continue taking on bigger responsibilities. And remained flexible enough for the additional moves to come.
Who Detroit is losing
First off, the Red Wings had three free agents they could try to resign. Valtteri Filppula, Danny Cleary and Damien Brunner.
Filppula
For months there have been reports that Filppula wanted a minimum of $5 million a year. He eventually got that from Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightening in a five year contract. I have to say, Yzerman may not be cut out to be a GM. This is not a good deal. Filppula is turning 30 next year and has scored more than 40 points once in his career. For some perspective, Ryan Kesler, James Neal, Bobby Ryan, and David Krejci all have cap hits in the $5 million a year range and are all vastly superior players.
Still, this means Detroit is losing around 37 points a year, and a player strong defensively and in the faceoff dot.
Brunner
It looks like Brunner is likely heading out after the other signings by Detroit. The 27-year-old showed great offensive skill, if sometimes inconsistently, in his "rookie" season last year. If you add his playoff numbers to the lockout-shortened season totals Brunner had about 0.6 points a game. If he can sustain that pace going forward, that's about 50 points a season. That could be a big blow to Detroit's offense and depth. Of course, that is a small sample size, and no guarantee that he'll deliver that next season. On top of that, he's a bit one-dimensional. He can't take faceoffs or play on the penalty kill. And he was prone to carelessness with the puck at times. Still, it's too bad Detroit could not figure out a way to retain him.
Cleary
As I've said before, Cleary is a frustrating player. He's had some great years with Detroit and has been the type of guy to chip in 10 goals a year. But my issue recently has been that he hasn't been paid like a guy chipping in 10 goals a year. The 34-year-old looks like he is slowing down and is likely going to be battling some type of injury on and off for the rest of his career. On top of that, the Red Wings have a lot of prospects coming up through the system and every second Cleary plays is a second a young forward is not getting an opportunity. And finally, the Red Wings already have players filling a similar role under contract (Todd Bertuzzi and Mikael Samuelsson). My best guess is the Wings will lose at most 30 points a year from Cleary if he is not resigned.
All-in-all, that's anywhere from 110 to 120 points of offense leaving Detroit. So let's look at who is coming in to replace that.
Daniel Alfredsson
Well, I really didn't see that one coming. I'm not sure anyone expected Alfredsson to leave the Ottawa Senators after 17 seasons. And yet he'll be pulling on a Red Wings jersey next season and Ottawa will now be his divisional rival. Alfredsson is the classic old dude who is a shadow of himself type of player Detroit loves to lure away from other teams. This reminded me a lot of the Mike Modano signing a few years back, but it might work out a little bit better.
It's hard to say what the 40-year-old has left in the tank. Playing on an injury-riddled, undermanned Senators team last year, Alfredsson put up just 26 points. Two years ago he scored 27 goals and 59 points. Despite the dip in his offensive numbers last year, Alfredsson remained a strong puck possession player with a corsi of just over 12, which would have been good for 5th among Red Wings forwards last year, just behind Filppula.
Taking a pessimistic view that Alfredsson's lower points per game rate is here to stay, and considering his age, the Red Wings can probably expect about 70 games and 40 points from the right winger next season. I consider this a solid move by the Red Wings. $2 million of Alfredsson's salary is contingent on performance bonuses, meaning that money will not count against the cap until next year if the goals are achieved. I also like that this is a one year deal, so the Wings are not locked into losing a roster space for a prospect who is ready to join the team.
Stephen Weiss
This was definitely Detroit's biggest move of the day. Weiss pretty much got the money Filppula wanted. His five-year contract actually pays half-a-million less. And that surprised me, because unlike Fil who has scored more than 40 points just once, Weiss has only once failed to break 40 points in the past seven seasons (and that was due to injury). In fact, remove last year's injury-shortened season and Weiss averaged almost 53 points a year for six seasons. Of course, Weiss recently turned 30, so his numbers are likely to begin trending lower, but he will be moving to a much better team than the Florida Panthers. At least for next season I think it's safe to expect 50 points from the center and likely 53% in the faceoff dot.
So Alfredsson and Weiss will hopefully contribute about 90 points next year, meaning Detroit still needs to add around 20-30 points just to make up for the departing players. Where will that offense come from? Two places: Veterans getting healthy and young players scoring more.
Injured reserve
Last season Detroit had one of the highest number of man-games lost to injury in the league. A big part of that was the near total lack of games played by Bertuzzi, Samuelsson and Helm. If those players returned to the line up, they would bring roughly 40, 30 and 25 points a piece with them. That would more than close the gap left by the departing forwards. But they are not all likely to remain on the team. That is because Detroit's prospects are finally forcing themselves into roster spots.
Young players scoring more
Did you blink? If you did, you probably missed Detroit's rebuild. The Red Wings are stocked with both defensive and forward prospects, as well as one of the best goalies in the AHL. And those players are just starting to force themselves onto the Red Wings roster. Tomas Tatar was excellent in his call up to the Red Wings and when he was sent back down he went on to win the MVP of the AHL playoffs. Gustav Nyquist and Joakim Andersson have also earned places on the team. Those two are without contracts so far, which means the Wings will soon be up to 16 forwards signed for 2013-14, and that's two too many.
My best guess/hope is that Detroit tries to trade at least two of the following: Samuelsson, Jordin Tootoo, or Cory Emmerton. Losing any of those players would have almost no impact on the team. And they take up $5.4 million in cap space. Those players or cap space could be used to add a final defenseman and/or upgrade other positions.
Considering some of the contracts handed out today, the Red Wings did pretty well. They did not hurt themselves with overly long or big contracts. They gave themselves space to allow their young players to continue taking on bigger responsibilities. And remained flexible enough for the additional moves to come.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Blackhawks win, and so did we
As the insane ending to game six of the Stanley Cup Final was playing out, my wife looked over at me as the seconds ticked down, a hint of a smile entering her face. "Wait, does this mean hockey is over?!" I have to say, I understand where she's coming from. With the lockout pushing the finals into late-June, it was way too nice outside to be thinking about a sport played on ice. Or whatever that slushy substance was in Boston.
I, on the other hand, felt a pang of melancholy, knowing it'd be three months before the pucks again are dropped. At least one good thing to came out of the lockout, and this is absolutely the only good thing: the offseason will be shorter than usual. In fact, that Blackhawks have hardly finished their parade and the focus of the hockey world is already moving on to buyouts, trades and the entry draft on Sunday.
I will get into some of that in future posts, but before that, here's a few last thoughts on the cup final.
I was not certain who I would cheer for before the final series began. In the end, it was Chicago, pretty much for the reasons I outlined. But another reason I'm happy the team won is because I like the hockey Chicago plays. They use speed, stretch passes and a mobile, attacking defense to create numerous and exciting scoring chances. I'd much rather watch teams try that than Boston's clogging/grinding style.
When parity rules, depth is the MVP
It was a curious year for the Conn Smythe trophy with no clear No. 1 on the Blackhawks. I saw quite a bit of Chicago's playoff run and I really think the two best players start to finish were Bryan Bickell and Patrick Sharp. Both players scored timely goals, and while much was made of Jonathon Toews and Kane being reunited on a line in game four, I think the true turning point was Bickell moving back to the top line. Had the series gone seven, I think you could have even made a case that Tuukka Rask could have pulled off the rare, losing goalie Conn Smythe steal. Since the votes were cast with 10 minutes left in the game, Bickell's final exclamation point of the playoffs was not taken into account. I had a feeling the select few voters would instead give the trophy to a star and so I'm kinda, sorta glad it went to Patrick Kane.
The reason? Part of me suspected they would somehow figure out a way to give the trophy to Toews. He was great defensively and his lack of scoring probably had more to do with bad luck than anything. But to be the MVP you have to score goals, play 30 minutes a night or carry your team to the cup with outstanding saves. And he just didn't do any of those. The other candidate I thought was possible was Corey Crawford. While he certainly did enough to win the cup and played very well, at no point did I feel like he was stealing games for the Blackhawks. Of course, that mostly had to do with the fact that the Blackhawks didn't put themselves in that position. So yay, Kane! Third consecutive American to win the MVP.
During the final, I kept thinking about this:
And this:
Obviously, you can't really compare NBA and NHL toughness. But I can't help thinking about these two moments every time I watch some hockey player tough it out with much, much more serious injuries. But are teams letting players go too far? If you haven't yet read Nick Costonika's excellent column on the topic, you really should. When guys are spending days in the hospital after playing in elimination games like Rocky and Apollo after their fight, it's time to consider whether someone should have stepped in before things went that far.
With Boston and Chicago vying to be the first post-lockout 2.0 cup repeaters, I was wondering which team would make it back next. Both teams will need to retool a little bit. At this point, I'm assuming that Bickell and Bolland are both gone for Chicago, even with the buyouts to Steve Montador and Rostislav Olesz. After that playoff run, Bickell will have to leave a huge chunk of change on the table to stay in Chicago. He's saying he wants to stay and will take a discount, but I don't think he understands just how much money GMs are going to be throwing at him. There are five teams in the league right now whose 2013-2014 payrolls are below the minimum salary cap number, meaning they're required to spend more on salaries. On the flip side, with Chicago's expiring contracts they need to fill five roster spots and have just under $8 million in cap space to do so. And Crawford and Nik Hjarlmarsson and entering the final years in their contract and could be looking for raises a year from now. I don't think the roster overhaul will be as dramatic as the last cup run for the Blackhawks, but they will once again have to shed depth.
For Boston, I expect bigger changes. They have a little more cap space (almost $10 million), but need to add six players to the roster. And two of their unsigned players are two of their best: Rask and Nathon Horton. They've already said they will part ways with Andrew Ference and Jaromir Jagr, and I would expect Horton to follow. Perhaps of most concern for Boston is that Zdeno Chara finally started to look human these playoffs. This is not too surprising considering that he'll turn 37 next year. But if the not so gentile giant starts to break down, Boston is still stuck with big Z for five more years and $31 million. Could the captain be headed for a buyout after next season? Boston will need to make some tough decisions over the next year and it's going to be fascinating to see how it shakes out.
I, on the other hand, felt a pang of melancholy, knowing it'd be three months before the pucks again are dropped. At least one good thing to came out of the lockout, and this is absolutely the only good thing: the offseason will be shorter than usual. In fact, that Blackhawks have hardly finished their parade and the focus of the hockey world is already moving on to buyouts, trades and the entry draft on Sunday.
I will get into some of that in future posts, but before that, here's a few last thoughts on the cup final.
I liked Chicago's kung fu better
I was not certain who I would cheer for before the final series began. In the end, it was Chicago, pretty much for the reasons I outlined. But another reason I'm happy the team won is because I like the hockey Chicago plays. They use speed, stretch passes and a mobile, attacking defense to create numerous and exciting scoring chances. I'd much rather watch teams try that than Boston's clogging/grinding style.
When parity rules, depth is the MVP
It was a curious year for the Conn Smythe trophy with no clear No. 1 on the Blackhawks. I saw quite a bit of Chicago's playoff run and I really think the two best players start to finish were Bryan Bickell and Patrick Sharp. Both players scored timely goals, and while much was made of Jonathon Toews and Kane being reunited on a line in game four, I think the true turning point was Bickell moving back to the top line. Had the series gone seven, I think you could have even made a case that Tuukka Rask could have pulled off the rare, losing goalie Conn Smythe steal. Since the votes were cast with 10 minutes left in the game, Bickell's final exclamation point of the playoffs was not taken into account. I had a feeling the select few voters would instead give the trophy to a star and so I'm kinda, sorta glad it went to Patrick Kane.
The reason? Part of me suspected they would somehow figure out a way to give the trophy to Toews. He was great defensively and his lack of scoring probably had more to do with bad luck than anything. But to be the MVP you have to score goals, play 30 minutes a night or carry your team to the cup with outstanding saves. And he just didn't do any of those. The other candidate I thought was possible was Corey Crawford. While he certainly did enough to win the cup and played very well, at no point did I feel like he was stealing games for the Blackhawks. Of course, that mostly had to do with the fact that the Blackhawks didn't put themselves in that position. So yay, Kane! Third consecutive American to win the MVP.
Rub some 'tussin on it
During the final, I kept thinking about this:
And this:
Obviously, you can't really compare NBA and NHL toughness. But I can't help thinking about these two moments every time I watch some hockey player tough it out with much, much more serious injuries. But are teams letting players go too far? If you haven't yet read Nick Costonika's excellent column on the topic, you really should. When guys are spending days in the hospital after playing in elimination games like Rocky and Apollo after their fight, it's time to consider whether someone should have stepped in before things went that far.
Who makes it back next?
With Boston and Chicago vying to be the first post-lockout 2.0 cup repeaters, I was wondering which team would make it back next. Both teams will need to retool a little bit. At this point, I'm assuming that Bickell and Bolland are both gone for Chicago, even with the buyouts to Steve Montador and Rostislav Olesz. After that playoff run, Bickell will have to leave a huge chunk of change on the table to stay in Chicago. He's saying he wants to stay and will take a discount, but I don't think he understands just how much money GMs are going to be throwing at him. There are five teams in the league right now whose 2013-2014 payrolls are below the minimum salary cap number, meaning they're required to spend more on salaries. On the flip side, with Chicago's expiring contracts they need to fill five roster spots and have just under $8 million in cap space to do so. And Crawford and Nik Hjarlmarsson and entering the final years in their contract and could be looking for raises a year from now. I don't think the roster overhaul will be as dramatic as the last cup run for the Blackhawks, but they will once again have to shed depth.
For Boston, I expect bigger changes. They have a little more cap space (almost $10 million), but need to add six players to the roster. And two of their unsigned players are two of their best: Rask and Nathon Horton. They've already said they will part ways with Andrew Ference and Jaromir Jagr, and I would expect Horton to follow. Perhaps of most concern for Boston is that Zdeno Chara finally started to look human these playoffs. This is not too surprising considering that he'll turn 37 next year. But if the not so gentile giant starts to break down, Boston is still stuck with big Z for five more years and $31 million. Could the captain be headed for a buyout after next season? Boston will need to make some tough decisions over the next year and it's going to be fascinating to see how it shakes out.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Boston v. Chicago: My series pick
I've long wondered why it is that Football and basketball can draw such strong ratings, mostly from fans who don't actually belong to any of the teams in the championship games, but hockey is unable to do so. Obviously, the two sports are more popular and much more widely played in the U.S. But what stumps me is why hockey fans, for the most part, stop watching hockey once their team is eliminated. I’m certainly not immune to this myself. Over the past few seasons I've tried to change this.
After a sufficient mourning period for Detroit's collapse against Chicago, I've emerged from my bunker. I did watch some of the conference final games, but have to say I was a bit let down by the one-sided results. However, the short round means we'll have two rested teams, looking like they're at the top of their game in the finals.
Before the playoffs started I thought Boston had the best chance to come out of the East, and that is was a coin flip between L.A. and Chicago in the West. I gave the Kings a slight edge, given their excellent possession numbers. However, by the time the conference finals rolled around, Chicago had moved ahead of the battered Kings in that area.
Now that my cup pick (L.A.) has been eliminated, I have to go with Chicago. It’s hard to say how the final will play out, given that the conferences did not play each other this year. Chicago was easily the best team of the regular season, in a year when they only played the West. Of course, with my West Coast bias, that simply makes Chicago's season even more of an achievement. But this also puts me at odds with most of the experts.
Boston’s dismantling of the Penguins was impressive and I think that’s what is driving the pundits to pick them. However, the Penguins have always been a very top heavy team. And more recently, prone to childish meltdowns. The Pens’ stars have to be the best players in the series for them to win. Chicago, on the other hand, has the depth to match, and exceed, Boston’s.
The biggest challenge of the playoffs for the Blackhawks came from the Red Wings. Detroit shut down the top stars for Chicago, in much the same way that Boston did to Pittsburgh. Boston may be able to better execute the Detroit game plan. Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron will surely be giving Jonathon Toews flashbacks of Niklas Krownwall and Henrik Zetterberg. But Chicago prevailed despite their stars limited production by getting timely goals from Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw and the rest of the crew.
Boston has the edge defensively and in the net. But not by a mile. And Chicago has more players who can put the puck in the net, which ultimately is what wins games. It should be a closely contested series, but I believe Chicago will find a way to be the victor.
My hope is that the games are interesting. In my new effort to watch hockey for the pure enjoyment of the game I’ve struggled. I need a team to root for. But these two teams are not exactly easy for me to like.
If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you may recall that I outlined reasons to cheer against Boston at the start of the season. But here are some reasons to cheer for Boston.
After a sufficient mourning period for Detroit's collapse against Chicago, I've emerged from my bunker. I did watch some of the conference final games, but have to say I was a bit let down by the one-sided results. However, the short round means we'll have two rested teams, looking like they're at the top of their game in the finals.
Before the playoffs started I thought Boston had the best chance to come out of the East, and that is was a coin flip between L.A. and Chicago in the West. I gave the Kings a slight edge, given their excellent possession numbers. However, by the time the conference finals rolled around, Chicago had moved ahead of the battered Kings in that area.
Now that my cup pick (L.A.) has been eliminated, I have to go with Chicago. It’s hard to say how the final will play out, given that the conferences did not play each other this year. Chicago was easily the best team of the regular season, in a year when they only played the West. Of course, with my West Coast bias, that simply makes Chicago's season even more of an achievement. But this also puts me at odds with most of the experts.
Boston’s dismantling of the Penguins was impressive and I think that’s what is driving the pundits to pick them. However, the Penguins have always been a very top heavy team. And more recently, prone to childish meltdowns. The Pens’ stars have to be the best players in the series for them to win. Chicago, on the other hand, has the depth to match, and exceed, Boston’s.
The biggest challenge of the playoffs for the Blackhawks came from the Red Wings. Detroit shut down the top stars for Chicago, in much the same way that Boston did to Pittsburgh. Boston may be able to better execute the Detroit game plan. Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron will surely be giving Jonathon Toews flashbacks of Niklas Krownwall and Henrik Zetterberg. But Chicago prevailed despite their stars limited production by getting timely goals from Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw and the rest of the crew.
Boston has the edge defensively and in the net. But not by a mile. And Chicago has more players who can put the puck in the net, which ultimately is what wins games. It should be a closely contested series, but I believe Chicago will find a way to be the victor.
My hope is that the games are interesting. In my new effort to watch hockey for the pure enjoyment of the game I’ve struggled. I need a team to root for. But these two teams are not exactly easy for me to like.
The case for Boston
If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you may recall that I outlined reasons to cheer against Boston at the start of the season. But here are some reasons to cheer for Boston.
- Yes, Mr. Burns still owns the team. But Boston is going against one of Detroit’s oldest rivals, which just happened to be the team to send the Red Wings home this year. Also, somehow Rocky Wirtz is sticking to the story that he is still losing money on the Blackhawks. Either Wirtz is an amazingly incompetent businessman (he does own an NHL team, so entirely possible), or he’s just lying and trying to make it look like the lockout was necessary (again, he does own an NHL team …).
- Wouldn’t it be great to see Tuukka Rask prove he’s every bit as good as Tim Thomas? Imagining Thomas sitting in his mountain bunker, considering how he gave up another cup ring and probably 10 percent of his total career earnings, (just to get away from, I don’t know, health care for poor people?) that is delicious.
- Patrice Bergeron plays hockey the right way, and he may finally get some recognition as being the best all-around forward in the league.
- The Bruins got their biggest scare from the Toronto Maple Leafs, who happened to have traded them Rask in exchange for Andrew Raycroft (not to mention the trades that brought in Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin). So at least the Cubs of the NHL could watch players they should have kept win the cup.
The case for Chicago
- On the other hand, an easy win by Chicago might give me some satisfaction knowing that my team pushed them to the brink. Might.
- I’ve got family who would be really happy with a Blackhawks win, so there is that.
- Another ring would pretty much cement Patrick Kane into his off-season training regimen of getting super wasted all summer. I have a feeling Deadspin is hoping for this too.
- Isn’t just about everyone tired of Boston teams winning championships?
- Chicago is a more important market for the NHL than Boston, so a second title in four years could be what’s needed to tighten up those seat belts on the bandwagon.
- I’m a Western conference snob and Chicago winning would re-enforce my bias.
- Marian Hossa would get another ring, making up for those back-to-back finals losses a couple years ago. I have a soft spot for this guy. Hossa learned by being traded from Ottawa to Atlanta to Pittsburgh that this is a business and the teams are more than happy to talk about loyalty right up until they hand you your ticket out of town. When Hossa finally had a say in where he wanted to play, he turned down tens of millions for a one-season shot at winning a title. He could have had a career ending injury and never recovered the money he passed up. He decided winning was more important than money.
Ultimately, I can reason all I want, but I won’t know who I really want to win until I start watching the games. Sports are irrational.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Until next time, Blackhawks
Game seven between Detroit and Chicago finally delivered a drama-filled contest for the ages. I was so impressed with the high-tempo. Both teams were in attack mode, playing defense almost not to shut down a scoring chance, but instead to quickly start one in the opposite direction. And just as exciting, the goalies were equal to the task. This was definitely a fitting final conference match-up between these teams.
I’m hugely impressed with Chicago’s ability to come back from a 3-1 series deficit, but I’m also deeply disappointed that Detroit could not close the deal. Mike Babcock was right when he said that before any games had been played the people of Detroit would have welcomed a game seven. That was all most Red Wings fans were really hoping for. Just don’t embarrass our tradition guys. But then they somehow pulled together and remind the Blackhawks that the playoffs are an entirely different beast. My expectations changed.
I’ve seen so many parallels between these franchises the past few seasons. They play the same style; a combination of speed, skill and hard work. They have young goalies trying to prove they’re the real deal. They both set up Marian Hossa for goals. But one of the biggest similarities has been the early exits from the playoffs.
While Detroit was slowly losing its place as an elite team since back-to-back finals appearances, Chicago has appeared to underachieve. Part of Chicago’s trouble had to do with the salary cap purge following the 2010 cup, but they still maintained one of the best cores in the league. However, the past few years I’ve wondered if the team has not been underachieving but in fact greatly overachieved when winning the cup in 2010.
The 2010 cup win seemed way ahead of schedule to me and I actually thought at the time it might not be the best thing for Chicago in the long run. After all, wouldn't a little taste of defeat be a big motivator to get truly committed to winning (cough, Kane, cough). Mario Lemieux was 25 when he won his first cup in his seventh season. Joe Sakic was 26. Mike Modano, 28. Steve Yzerman, 31. These guys spent years falling short before playoff winning was finally ingrained in them. Jonathon Toews and Patrick Kane were 21.
In fact, the Toews led Hawks did not have to face a recent cup wining team on the way to the championship in 2010 and this group didn’t play in a game seven until the following season defeat to Vancouver. Wednesday’s game seven win was the first ever for Toews and Kane. These guys are so talented it’s easy to forget they’re still just 25 years old.
So we will soon see if coming back from 3-1 was what this group needed to propel the team to a new level and possibly another Stanley Cup. They are certainly going to need to play better to move past the Kings. L.A. has won six consecutive series and seems to be again firing all cylinders. This match-up would be a fitting cup final.
I have to say I am impressed with the string of games the Red Wings put together. They certainly made me believe they could be the Blackhawks, but eventually the short-comings of the regular season caught up to them. Coming into this year having lost three of their top four defenders over two seasons I assumed they would have a hard time keeping the puck out of the net. This certainly happened in a few blowout games, but for the most part Detroit was surprisingly sound defensively.
Where the team was hurt most was the lack of scoring. Veteran depth scorers Todd Bertuzzi, Mikael Samuelsson, and Darren Helm played a total of 12 games combined. The benefit of these injuries was that it forced the Wings to play rookies like Joakim Andersson and Gustav Nyquist. But Detroit could not match offense with Chicago, who were first in goals scored on the season.
After Detroit won three in a row, it started to feel like they played not to lose. The focus was so strong on shutting down the top lines of Chicago, there was a lack of attack from Detroit's stars. Babcock said he thought the depth lines would be the difference. Finally in game seven Detroit's top lines tried to take some offensive initiative and that's why it was easily the best game of the series. But it was too little too late.
And the other concern about the defense returned. Detroit was 20 minutes from advancing in game six. And then Brendan Smith reminded us he was playing in only his 13th playoff game. Two plays, two goals, and Chicago was ahead to stay. And then came game seven. To start the season I wondered if any team could hope for much success if Nick Kronwall and Jonny Ericsson were its top defensive pair. While they raised their game and played their hearts out, their slow change to start the second period was the direct cause of the all-important first goal for Chicago And Kronwall's poor positioning and shot-block/deflection into his own net caused the overtime winner. I think we all knew a play like that was how Detroit's season would end this year.
But despite the epic collapse, there were still a lot of positives from the first non-Lidstrom season in 20 years. The Red Wings used six rookies in the playoffs. I really can't remember the last time that's happened. When Bertuzzi and Samuelsson were finally healthy enough to play, amazingly they could not stay in the lineup because Detroit's rookies were playing so well. A few different bounces and those rookies could have been playing in Detroit's deepest playoff run in four years.
Damien Brunner out-scored Valtteri Filppula by nine points in the regular season and was the team's leading playoff goal-scorer. Brendan Smith and Danny DeKeyser at times looked amazing, and promise to be the foundation of the next great Detroit blueline. Tomas Tatar nearly equaled every one of Detroit's bottom six forwards in scoring and only played in 22 games. And Gustav Nyquist finally got to play with some high-end talent. I hope I'm seeing plays like this for many years to come.
I’m hugely impressed with Chicago’s ability to come back from a 3-1 series deficit, but I’m also deeply disappointed that Detroit could not close the deal. Mike Babcock was right when he said that before any games had been played the people of Detroit would have welcomed a game seven. That was all most Red Wings fans were really hoping for. Just don’t embarrass our tradition guys. But then they somehow pulled together and remind the Blackhawks that the playoffs are an entirely different beast. My expectations changed.
I’ve seen so many parallels between these franchises the past few seasons. They play the same style; a combination of speed, skill and hard work. They have young goalies trying to prove they’re the real deal. They both set up Marian Hossa for goals. But one of the biggest similarities has been the early exits from the playoffs.
While Detroit was slowly losing its place as an elite team since back-to-back finals appearances, Chicago has appeared to underachieve. Part of Chicago’s trouble had to do with the salary cap purge following the 2010 cup, but they still maintained one of the best cores in the league. However, the past few years I’ve wondered if the team has not been underachieving but in fact greatly overachieved when winning the cup in 2010.
The 2010 cup win seemed way ahead of schedule to me and I actually thought at the time it might not be the best thing for Chicago in the long run. After all, wouldn't a little taste of defeat be a big motivator to get truly committed to winning (cough, Kane, cough). Mario Lemieux was 25 when he won his first cup in his seventh season. Joe Sakic was 26. Mike Modano, 28. Steve Yzerman, 31. These guys spent years falling short before playoff winning was finally ingrained in them. Jonathon Toews and Patrick Kane were 21.
In fact, the Toews led Hawks did not have to face a recent cup wining team on the way to the championship in 2010 and this group didn’t play in a game seven until the following season defeat to Vancouver. Wednesday’s game seven win was the first ever for Toews and Kane. These guys are so talented it’s easy to forget they’re still just 25 years old.
So we will soon see if coming back from 3-1 was what this group needed to propel the team to a new level and possibly another Stanley Cup. They are certainly going to need to play better to move past the Kings. L.A. has won six consecutive series and seems to be again firing all cylinders. This match-up would be a fitting cup final.
How did Detroit collapse?
I have to say I am impressed with the string of games the Red Wings put together. They certainly made me believe they could be the Blackhawks, but eventually the short-comings of the regular season caught up to them. Coming into this year having lost three of their top four defenders over two seasons I assumed they would have a hard time keeping the puck out of the net. This certainly happened in a few blowout games, but for the most part Detroit was surprisingly sound defensively.
Where the team was hurt most was the lack of scoring. Veteran depth scorers Todd Bertuzzi, Mikael Samuelsson, and Darren Helm played a total of 12 games combined. The benefit of these injuries was that it forced the Wings to play rookies like Joakim Andersson and Gustav Nyquist. But Detroit could not match offense with Chicago, who were first in goals scored on the season.
After Detroit won three in a row, it started to feel like they played not to lose. The focus was so strong on shutting down the top lines of Chicago, there was a lack of attack from Detroit's stars. Babcock said he thought the depth lines would be the difference. Finally in game seven Detroit's top lines tried to take some offensive initiative and that's why it was easily the best game of the series. But it was too little too late.
And the other concern about the defense returned. Detroit was 20 minutes from advancing in game six. And then Brendan Smith reminded us he was playing in only his 13th playoff game. Two plays, two goals, and Chicago was ahead to stay. And then came game seven. To start the season I wondered if any team could hope for much success if Nick Kronwall and Jonny Ericsson were its top defensive pair. While they raised their game and played their hearts out, their slow change to start the second period was the direct cause of the all-important first goal for Chicago And Kronwall's poor positioning and shot-block/deflection into his own net caused the overtime winner. I think we all knew a play like that was how Detroit's season would end this year.
But despite the epic collapse, there were still a lot of positives from the first non-Lidstrom season in 20 years. The Red Wings used six rookies in the playoffs. I really can't remember the last time that's happened. When Bertuzzi and Samuelsson were finally healthy enough to play, amazingly they could not stay in the lineup because Detroit's rookies were playing so well. A few different bounces and those rookies could have been playing in Detroit's deepest playoff run in four years.
Damien Brunner out-scored Valtteri Filppula by nine points in the regular season and was the team's leading playoff goal-scorer. Brendan Smith and Danny DeKeyser at times looked amazing, and promise to be the foundation of the next great Detroit blueline. Tomas Tatar nearly equaled every one of Detroit's bottom six forwards in scoring and only played in 22 games. And Gustav Nyquist finally got to play with some high-end talent. I hope I'm seeing plays like this for many years to come.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Red Wings and Blackhawks: I've seen this before
Every game is not different. If not exactly the same, most are predictable, many at least uniform in mood ... I see patterns now where I once saw mostly details: in games and seasons, in several seasons, in goals, in saves, in words I hear, in others, in me, everything like something from before ...
- Ken Dryden, The Game
I am still in disbelief. I thought Detroit might have a chance against Chicago, at no point did I think they would be up three games to one. But I have to say this series has fallen into a familiar pattern. The high powered offense is being stifled and frustrated. The underdog team has been able to withstand the early onslaught, long enough to capitalize on an opportunity. The besieged goalie is taking care of the first shot, his desperate defensemen are there to clear away the rebound. And when the clock winds down to zero, the lower seed has come away with an unlikely win.
I've watched Detroit go through this experience again and again. Against San Jose in 1994, Los Angeles in 2001, Anaheim in 2003, Calgary in 2004, Edmonton in 2006 and just last year against Nashville. But Detroit has always been the favorite. Now they're in the role of spoiler.
I'm sure this series is falling into a familiar pattern for Joel Quenneville as well. During time behind the bench in St. Louis, Colorado and Chicago, he's never solved the Detroit puzzle. One more loss and he'll be the first coach in NHL history to have an 0-6 playoff series record against one team. I imagine Detroit can't move to the Eastern Conference fast enough for him.
In game four, down by only a goal to start the final period, Chicago showed few signs of desperation. There was very little urgency. Chicago refused to shift strategy, repeatedly having their offense disrupted and turned back in the neutral zone. Meanwhile, time continued to tick away as Detroit morphed into an efficient defense machine, grinding out the last 20 minutes. I was stunned. Where was Chicago's passion and fire? Didn't they see the peril of going down three games to one? It did not look like it. In fact, I think Chicago still feels confident they are going to pull this off. Confidence is important, but it can also lead to complacence. And the young Wings are now feeling some confidence of their own.
When this series started, I was simply hoping Detroit could make things competitive. Now, I think it would be an all-time collapse if Detroit failed to advance. The Red Wings still may not be as skilled or deep as the Blackhawks, but Detroit is proving to be the better team.
After the Red Wings won their second of the series I felt confident they could get at least one more. The law of averages meant they'd break through on the power play at some point. And the Blackhawks had left themselves vulnerable for the classic underdog goalie shutout game. Both of those things came together for the game four win. Again, I like the averages for Detroit. You never want to give players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg three chances to eliminate you. Coming into this series Zetterberg had scored at least one goal in every single one of the 20 playoff series in which he's played. He has yet to score a goal against Chicago.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Red Wings forcing Blackhawks to get better
The Chicago-Detroit series has been pretty entertaining, but not quite as dramatic as I had expected. In the first round against the Ducks, Detroit had four overtime games and a game seven decided by a single goal. Round two has lacked that suspense. Games one and two were almost completely dominated by the winning teams. Game three was tense for the first half, but then Detroit safely took a two-goal lead to the end of the game. These divergent results make it hard to judge who actually has the edge.
After game one, it looked as if all those pundits who picked Chicago in five had probably hit the nail on the head. Chicago skated Detroit right out of the building. But, as they have all season, Detroit responded. During stretches of game 2 it seemed Detroit’s stifling defense had sucked the oxygen out of the building. During the broadcast it was so quiet in the Madhouse on Madison TM that you could hear the players talking to each other on the ice. I can’t ever remember that happening.
In game three, we had a return of the dominant Blackhawks, at least for the first half of the game. Chicago was getting power plays, peppering Howard with shots and ringing pucks off the posts. They just could not break through for a goal. And when Detroit suddenly scored two goals under a minute apart, it seemed to deflate the team. This is a familiar script for Detroit fans, only the roles are usually reversed.
After game one, it looked as if all those pundits who picked Chicago in five had probably hit the nail on the head. Chicago skated Detroit right out of the building. But, as they have all season, Detroit responded. During stretches of game 2 it seemed Detroit’s stifling defense had sucked the oxygen out of the building. During the broadcast it was so quiet in the Madhouse on Madison TM that you could hear the players talking to each other on the ice. I can’t ever remember that happening.
In game three, we had a return of the dominant Blackhawks, at least for the first half of the game. Chicago was getting power plays, peppering Howard with shots and ringing pucks off the posts. They just could not break through for a goal. And when Detroit suddenly scored two goals under a minute apart, it seemed to deflate the team. This is a familiar script for Detroit fans, only the roles are usually reversed.
So what about that third period?
- That was a blown call on the Franzen boarding. However, I can’t help thinking he was trying to milk a penalty out of the play and was fully aware he was going to get hit from behind. Franzen is responsible for taking care of himself, too. Whether he was careless or just trying to get a power play, I don’t know. As it was happening I was thinking, “I hope the Wings stayed focused and don’t give up a goal on this sequence. DAMN IT!”
- That was terrible defense by Brendan Smith and Kyle Quincey TM and also an amazing goal by Patty Kane. Yes, he wouldn’t have scored this if a whistle had been blown, but he still had to make some fantastic moves to get the puck in the back of the net. Detroit could have stopped him and did not.
- By the letter of the law, the tying goal could have been called interference, but man, that was weak. The rule says a player can’t enter the crease and impede a goalie from making a save even if he does not touch the goalie. In my view, that was a phantom call and the Blackhawks got screwed. Again, a familiar script to Detroit fans. Intent to blow, anyone?
- Why does Pavel Datsyuk ever pass when he can shoot like this? This is two rounds in a row that he’s blistered a shot so fast it was out of the net before most people had seen it go in. And the placement of the shot just over the goalies shoulder, the soft underbelly of modern butterfly goaltenders, all while flying down the ice at full speed. Unreal. Some might say Gary Bettman’s lockouts will go down as his biggest failures, but I think it would be if Datsyuk were to leave for the KHL after next season. That guy is a magician and belongs on hockey’s biggest stage for as long as possible.
Where does this series go now?
As a Detroit fan, I have to say I’m happy that the team is up 2-1, and they’ve done that without scoring a power play goal. You have to figure that’s going to turn around at some point this series. But all of this still does not give me much confidence. I’ve watched this team disappear too often following great performances to think they are in command of this series. If Detroit drops the next game, Chicago again has home ice advantage and is heading home for the pivotal game five.
My sense is the Red Wings are playing about as well as they can, but Chicago has shown it has a whole other gear to go to. The Blackhawks just have not been able to sustain that level of play. At some point the opening period barrage should lead to more than just goal posts and high shot totals. And once the Blackhawks break through, it could be the crack in the dam that leads to the flood.
This is the key moment for the Blackhawks season. Right now, they have to win three out of the next four games to keep their season going. They have a coach who is 0-5 in the playoffs against Detroit. That might sound daunting, but remember, coming into this series Chicago had defeated Detroit eight consecutive times.
This could be the challenge that the Blackhawks use to ramp up their game to a cup-winning level. Or it could be yet another season squandered by a highly talented club. Something Detroit fans certainly understand. Either way, both teams will have to dig deep to move on to the Western Conference final. I think we’re about to get the drama that’s been missing from the first three games.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Good night, good night
Next season, the Red Wings are going back to the Eastern Conference, where they belong. But first, we will be treated to one last playoff series between the Red Wings and the Blackhawks. Over the 86 years these teams have been in the NHL, they've played each other more than any other two teams in the league (725). Chicago has made the playoffs 58 times, won the cup 4 times and is ahead in head-to-head playoff series wins against Detroit 8-7. Detroit has made the playoffs 61 times and has 11 Stanley Cups. These teams have immense history in which both fan bases take a great amount of pride. The players, too, understand there is something a little different about pulling on one of those red sweaters.
This has been a hard season to watch the Red Wings. The retirements, the missed free agents, the injuries. It all added up to inconsistent and sometimes excruciating performances. This is the first year Ken Holland had me seriously scratching my head. The Wings ended the regular season with more than $7 million in cap space. The trade for another top four defender never came. Holland and Mike Babcock talked openly about the strong chance of missing the playoffs.
I can understand why Holland played it conservative this year. The moves he's made (or mostly didn't make) will help in 2014. The salary cap will drop $6 million to $64.3 million next season, but Detroit will be $8 million under that before using any buyouts. This will give the team flexibility to re-sign important players, buyout under-performers, and even add to the roster. And we finally got a chance to see some of the prospects we've been hearing about for years.
But man did that mean there have been a lot of growing pains this season. As I watched the Red Wings drop games to middling teams, I almost wanted them to miss the playoffs. If you can't beat Calgary after they've stripped the team of its aging stars, do you belong in the playoffs? And apparently this is supposed to be one of the deepest drafts in years. Maybe it wouldn't have been such a bad thing to fall into the lottery.
But once again the GM is showing why he should get the benefit of the doubt. This team of veterans who are just a little too old, and rookies who are not quite old enough, has won me over. Franzen, Datsyuk and Zetterberg elevated their game. Zetterberg has 18 points in his last 11 games, when it was win or go home. Six rookies have already gotten their first playoff experience (Andersson, Brunner, Nyquist, Lashoff, Dekeyser, Smith). All of this and they've made it one round deeper into the playoffs than the team with Nick Lidstrom did a year ago.
And now Detroit has earned the opportunity to play maybe the best team in hockey. I wouldn't want it any other way. Chicago could very well be on its way to another cup. Locking horns with this team is the best way for those rookies to experience the caliber of competition required to reach 16 playoff wins.
I've looked at these teams from all the angles and Chicago is better in every way. It is not an accident that the Blackhawks are currently on a seven game winning streak against the Red Wings. Chicago scored 31 more goals in the regular season, and gave up 13 fewer. Detroit had a slightly better power play, but Chicago gave up the fewest power play goals in the league. Chicago was the better puck possession team.
My head tells me Detroit doesn't really have a shot, but my heart wants to see the Wings keep this improbable run going just a little bit longer. For so long these teams have mirrored each other, been the crack in the sidewalk they trip over, the raspberry seed stuck in the wisdom tooth. One last clash between these old Norris Division rivals before we say goodbye.
This has been a hard season to watch the Red Wings. The retirements, the missed free agents, the injuries. It all added up to inconsistent and sometimes excruciating performances. This is the first year Ken Holland had me seriously scratching my head. The Wings ended the regular season with more than $7 million in cap space. The trade for another top four defender never came. Holland and Mike Babcock talked openly about the strong chance of missing the playoffs.
I can understand why Holland played it conservative this year. The moves he's made (or mostly didn't make) will help in 2014. The salary cap will drop $6 million to $64.3 million next season, but Detroit will be $8 million under that before using any buyouts. This will give the team flexibility to re-sign important players, buyout under-performers, and even add to the roster. And we finally got a chance to see some of the prospects we've been hearing about for years.
But man did that mean there have been a lot of growing pains this season. As I watched the Red Wings drop games to middling teams, I almost wanted them to miss the playoffs. If you can't beat Calgary after they've stripped the team of its aging stars, do you belong in the playoffs? And apparently this is supposed to be one of the deepest drafts in years. Maybe it wouldn't have been such a bad thing to fall into the lottery.
But once again the GM is showing why he should get the benefit of the doubt. This team of veterans who are just a little too old, and rookies who are not quite old enough, has won me over. Franzen, Datsyuk and Zetterberg elevated their game. Zetterberg has 18 points in his last 11 games, when it was win or go home. Six rookies have already gotten their first playoff experience (Andersson, Brunner, Nyquist, Lashoff, Dekeyser, Smith). All of this and they've made it one round deeper into the playoffs than the team with Nick Lidstrom did a year ago.
And now Detroit has earned the opportunity to play maybe the best team in hockey. I wouldn't want it any other way. Chicago could very well be on its way to another cup. Locking horns with this team is the best way for those rookies to experience the caliber of competition required to reach 16 playoff wins.
I've looked at these teams from all the angles and Chicago is better in every way. It is not an accident that the Blackhawks are currently on a seven game winning streak against the Red Wings. Chicago scored 31 more goals in the regular season, and gave up 13 fewer. Detroit had a slightly better power play, but Chicago gave up the fewest power play goals in the league. Chicago was the better puck possession team.
My head tells me Detroit doesn't really have a shot, but my heart wants to see the Wings keep this improbable run going just a little bit longer. For so long these teams have mirrored each other, been the crack in the sidewalk they trip over, the raspberry seed stuck in the wisdom tooth. One last clash between these old Norris Division rivals before we say goodbye.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Nothing beats the playoffs
One thing I love about the playoffs is that it seems like every year there are games that will live on in the annals of hockey lore. there is just nothing better in sports than NHL playoff overtime.
Here's a few thoughts following the first round.
Here's a few thoughts following the first round.
San Jose and Los Angeles
When I was considering my cup favorites I was tempted to call out the Sharks as a dark horse. My reservation was the difficult path they would need to travel to get there. They are a strong puck possession team (9th in Fenwick close for the season) and seemed to take off after trading Ryan Clowe and Douglas Murray. Still, I didn't expect a sweep of the Canucks. The teams were relatively close in puck possession during the series and at even strength where the Sharks won the battle 8-6. The Sharks turned the series into a sweep on special teams where they steamrolled the Canucks 7-2.
This sets up an interesting series with the defending champs. The Kings certainly needed some luck to get passed St. Louis. The Kings only out-scored the Blues by two goals in the series (12-10) but that razor thin margin was enough to win the two extra games need to take the series. That match-up easily could have been a conference final.
While I'm sticking with the Kings as my cup pick, I think San Jose's offense gives them a real shot at advancing. In round one, the Sharks scored three more goals than the Kings in two fewer games. Much like the Blues-Kings series was an intense, exciting series in the first round, I think this could be the one to watch in round two (if you can stay up that late.
While I'm sticking with the Kings as my cup pick, I think San Jose's offense gives them a real shot at advancing. In round one, the Sharks scored three more goals than the Kings in two fewer games. Much like the Blues-Kings series was an intense, exciting series in the first round, I think this could be the one to watch in round two (if you can stay up that late.
Boston and New York
Similar to the San Jose Sharks, I thought the Rangers might be ripe to make a run as a low seed. The Rangers were strong in puck possession (ranked 7th in Fenwick Close for the season) and generally played below expectations. Plus they have Henrik Lundqvist, that guy who just closed out games 6 and 7 without giving up a goal. It will be interesting to see how they match up with Boston.
The Bruins were the best Eastern Conference possession team, but despite their insane heroics to come back to win a series that should have never gone seven games to begin with, injuries may make them ripe for an upset. Wade Redden, Andrew Ference, and Dennis Seidenberg all appear questionable for the start of round two and that could really decimate the blueline. In the Bruins favor is the fact that they won despite a disappearing act by their top two scorers, Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin. If that duo can get hot against King Henrik, it may not matter if the defense resembles an AHL squad. The Rangers just might not have the goal scorers to keep up. Though this is a classic Original Six matchup, I can't help feel bored by this series. New York and Boston play all the time, in every sport. Not to mention these two teams are owned by two of the most vile owners in hockey.
The fact that the Penguins were finally willing to sit Marc-Andre Fluery is like a team getting a 40-goal scorer back from injury. At this point, they should be the overwhelming favorite to come out of the East. The only thing that could stop them is if for some reason they go back to Flower. If the Penguins don't buyout Flower in the off-season (or unload him on an idiotic team) Ray Shero should be banned from ever winning the GM of the Year award (for which he is currently a finalist).
I saw this team as a mirage, so I fully expected my Wings to beat them. Still, it disturbed me that it took seven games. I think this team is much closer to the lottery team of last season than the No. 2 seed of this year. And their cap issues starting next season are only going to get worse, meaning the thin roster is going to get thinner. One thing I will say, Ryan Getzlaf impressed me in this series. I hate his smirks and think he lets his temper prevents him from being the leader he could be. (Credit to Winging It In Motown for this excellent gif)
But he gained my grudging respect (it only took watching him play Detroit in the playoffs three times). He's one guy who might actually earn his contract for a few years. And the Ducks are going to need that.
The Bruins were the best Eastern Conference possession team, but despite their insane heroics to come back to win a series that should have never gone seven games to begin with, injuries may make them ripe for an upset. Wade Redden, Andrew Ference, and Dennis Seidenberg all appear questionable for the start of round two and that could really decimate the blueline. In the Bruins favor is the fact that they won despite a disappearing act by their top two scorers, Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin. If that duo can get hot against King Henrik, it may not matter if the defense resembles an AHL squad. The Rangers just might not have the goal scorers to keep up. Though this is a classic Original Six matchup, I can't help feel bored by this series. New York and Boston play all the time, in every sport. Not to mention these two teams are owned by two of the most vile owners in hockey.
Pittsburgh made a huge upgrade
The fact that the Penguins were finally willing to sit Marc-Andre Fluery is like a team getting a 40-goal scorer back from injury. At this point, they should be the overwhelming favorite to come out of the East. The only thing that could stop them is if for some reason they go back to Flower. If the Penguins don't buyout Flower in the off-season (or unload him on an idiotic team) Ray Shero should be banned from ever winning the GM of the Year award (for which he is currently a finalist).
Goodbye, Ducks
I saw this team as a mirage, so I fully expected my Wings to beat them. Still, it disturbed me that it took seven games. I think this team is much closer to the lottery team of last season than the No. 2 seed of this year. And their cap issues starting next season are only going to get worse, meaning the thin roster is going to get thinner. One thing I will say, Ryan Getzlaf impressed me in this series. I hate his smirks and think he lets his temper prevents him from being the leader he could be. (Credit to Winging It In Motown for this excellent gif)
But he gained my grudging respect (it only took watching him play Detroit in the playoffs three times). He's one guy who might actually earn his contract for a few years. And the Ducks are going to need that.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Stanley Cup favorites: Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings
With the playoffs here, it's time to wrap up my overviews of the teams I see as cup contenders. You can read my previous team posts here (Pittsburgh | Montreal | Boston | St. Louis).
It's not exactly going out on a limb to call the Blackhawks a cup contender. The team dominated the Western Conference earning 80% of the possible points (for a total of 77), scoring the second most goals in the league (155) and surrendering a league low 102. The last team to come close to that percentage of points was the 1995 Detroit Red Wings (79.9%), and they set the NHL record for most wins in a season.
This domination is a reflection of how complete Chicago is. In many ways Chicago is the ideal team of the modern, youth dominated NHL. The team is using young, upcoming depth players matched by a veteran core that is still in the heart of its prime. Seventeen Blackhawks have at least 10 points and that includes their entire defensive core. It is true that Chicago did benefit from a high PDO (1019), good for third highest in the league, but unlike the Leafs or the Ducks, the Blackhawks have the second highest Fenwick close percentage in the NHL (55.8 %). Clearly the better than sustainable team shooting and save percentages helped Chicago to this historic season, but the talent and execution this team displayed cannot be denied.
Any thing less than a conference finals appearance by this team would be a failure and huge upset. That being said, I do think one other team may actually be more of a cup favorite.
It appears the L.A. Kings are not just content to try to repeat as champions, but wish to also repeat history. Much like last year the team has closed the season strong after a shaky start. And just like last year, a trip to the finals would require beating most of the top teams in the conference. The team has again been dominating the puck possession numbers. Unfortunately, due to poor shooting and save percentages those numbers did not translated into wins on the ice earlier in the season (L.A ranked 22nd in PDO). After a super human effort by Jonathan Quick last year, the netminder returned to Earth in 2013. Had Quick played a little better, or perhaps had the Kings the benefit of a full season, I have little doubt the team would have caught and passed the Ducks for the division title.
The Kings are dominating puck possession with the highest Fenwick close percentage in the league (57.35). This type of puck possession historically translates into a deep playoff run. With most of last year's cup-winning squad still intact, the Kings are in a unique position in a league where potent teams often need to be dismantled due to the salary cap.
Still, there are difficult obstacles facing the Kings. L.A. has a stiff first-round matchup with St. Louis Blues, another strong puck possession team. That very well could be the best series of the opening round. There is also a reason no team has repeated since '97-'98: It's really hard to survive that grind while also staying healthy and catching enough breaks to keep winning.
I honestly think if the Kings meet the Blackhawks it would be a seven-game coin flip. It would also be one heck of a series. But my gut tells me the Kings are poised again to see a reverse in their puck luck at the right time, and give us the best chance we've had since the 2008 Red Wings to see the first post-cap repeat champion.
Chicago Blackhawks
It's not exactly going out on a limb to call the Blackhawks a cup contender. The team dominated the Western Conference earning 80% of the possible points (for a total of 77), scoring the second most goals in the league (155) and surrendering a league low 102. The last team to come close to that percentage of points was the 1995 Detroit Red Wings (79.9%), and they set the NHL record for most wins in a season.
This domination is a reflection of how complete Chicago is. In many ways Chicago is the ideal team of the modern, youth dominated NHL. The team is using young, upcoming depth players matched by a veteran core that is still in the heart of its prime. Seventeen Blackhawks have at least 10 points and that includes their entire defensive core. It is true that Chicago did benefit from a high PDO (1019), good for third highest in the league, but unlike the Leafs or the Ducks, the Blackhawks have the second highest Fenwick close percentage in the NHL (55.8 %). Clearly the better than sustainable team shooting and save percentages helped Chicago to this historic season, but the talent and execution this team displayed cannot be denied.
Any thing less than a conference finals appearance by this team would be a failure and huge upset. That being said, I do think one other team may actually be more of a cup favorite.
Los Angeles Kings
It appears the L.A. Kings are not just content to try to repeat as champions, but wish to also repeat history. Much like last year the team has closed the season strong after a shaky start. And just like last year, a trip to the finals would require beating most of the top teams in the conference. The team has again been dominating the puck possession numbers. Unfortunately, due to poor shooting and save percentages those numbers did not translated into wins on the ice earlier in the season (L.A ranked 22nd in PDO). After a super human effort by Jonathan Quick last year, the netminder returned to Earth in 2013. Had Quick played a little better, or perhaps had the Kings the benefit of a full season, I have little doubt the team would have caught and passed the Ducks for the division title.
The Kings are dominating puck possession with the highest Fenwick close percentage in the league (57.35). This type of puck possession historically translates into a deep playoff run. With most of last year's cup-winning squad still intact, the Kings are in a unique position in a league where potent teams often need to be dismantled due to the salary cap.
Still, there are difficult obstacles facing the Kings. L.A. has a stiff first-round matchup with St. Louis Blues, another strong puck possession team. That very well could be the best series of the opening round. There is also a reason no team has repeated since '97-'98: It's really hard to survive that grind while also staying healthy and catching enough breaks to keep winning.
I honestly think if the Kings meet the Blackhawks it would be a seven-game coin flip. It would also be one heck of a series. But my gut tells me the Kings are poised again to see a reverse in their puck luck at the right time, and give us the best chance we've had since the 2008 Red Wings to see the first post-cap repeat champion.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Stanley Cup Favorites: St. Louis Blues
Now that I've looked at the top teams in the East, it's time to turn my attention to the West. If you want to catch up on my other contender overviews, you can check them out here (Pittsburgh | Montreal | Boston).
St. Louis has struggled in this short season, coming nowhere close to the performance they showed last year. But that should not be too surprising given how fantastically things fell into place in 2012. I have little doubt that had there been a full 82 game season this year, the Blues could have made things much tighter in the race for the Central Division.
After a few years in the wilderness, the Blues were able to stock up on talent and that shows in their depth. But unlike many of the other teams drafting in the lottery St. Louis did no emerge with any offensive superstars. Vladamir Tarasenko may get there one day, but he's not there yet. However, the Blues do have a lot of players who chip in. This season they have 13 players with at least 10 points. Once the playoffs start, this will make it harder for the opposition to focus on any one line to shutdown.
The Blues' true strength is on the backend. They may have the best blueline in the league. Alex Pietrangelo is likely to be a Norris finalist in the near future. Kevin Shattenkirk may not be far behind. The addition of Jay Bouwmeester gives the Blues another top defender who can eat up hard minutes. All this forward and defense depth adds up to great puck possession numbers. The Blues Fenwick close number is almost 54% (53.79), which is good for 5th in the league.
The goaltending has been a little more suspect, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak are the main reason the Blues have struggled. Both goalies have had injuries, and some bad puck luck has likely contributed (the Blues PDO is ranked 22nd at 990). If one or both of these netminders can get healthy and sharp, the Blues could get on a deep playoff run.
The team's early struggles no doubt will make it harder to reach the Stanley Cup final. St. Louis could possibly have to go through LA, Vancouver and Chicago to get there. But it seems the ship has been righted and good puck possession numbers have a strong correlation to playoff success. The Blues' top players are all in their prime. I have not forgotten the great expectations at the start of the year. This team might be on the verge of seeing some of that bad puck luck turn around at just the right time.
St. Louis
St. Louis has struggled in this short season, coming nowhere close to the performance they showed last year. But that should not be too surprising given how fantastically things fell into place in 2012. I have little doubt that had there been a full 82 game season this year, the Blues could have made things much tighter in the race for the Central Division.
After a few years in the wilderness, the Blues were able to stock up on talent and that shows in their depth. But unlike many of the other teams drafting in the lottery St. Louis did no emerge with any offensive superstars. Vladamir Tarasenko may get there one day, but he's not there yet. However, the Blues do have a lot of players who chip in. This season they have 13 players with at least 10 points. Once the playoffs start, this will make it harder for the opposition to focus on any one line to shutdown.
The Blues' true strength is on the backend. They may have the best blueline in the league. Alex Pietrangelo is likely to be a Norris finalist in the near future. Kevin Shattenkirk may not be far behind. The addition of Jay Bouwmeester gives the Blues another top defender who can eat up hard minutes. All this forward and defense depth adds up to great puck possession numbers. The Blues Fenwick close number is almost 54% (53.79), which is good for 5th in the league.
The goaltending has been a little more suspect, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak are the main reason the Blues have struggled. Both goalies have had injuries, and some bad puck luck has likely contributed (the Blues PDO is ranked 22nd at 990). If one or both of these netminders can get healthy and sharp, the Blues could get on a deep playoff run.
The team's early struggles no doubt will make it harder to reach the Stanley Cup final. St. Louis could possibly have to go through LA, Vancouver and Chicago to get there. But it seems the ship has been righted and good puck possession numbers have a strong correlation to playoff success. The Blues' top players are all in their prime. I have not forgotten the great expectations at the start of the year. This team might be on the verge of seeing some of that bad puck luck turn around at just the right time.
Monday, April 22, 2013
10 short thoughts on the Wings-Coyotes game
Just wanted to share a few observations from tonight's game.
- The in-game crew for NBC Sports called Shane Doan one of the best leaders in the NHL of all time. Unfortunately, I was the only one around to enjoy my spit take.
- I really can't stand Pierre McGuire, but the fact that he relayed Shane Doan's trash talk to Justin Abdelkader was fantastic. "You play on a line with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and you only have 11 points? You should be ashamed." Indeed.
- That being said, this might have been the best game I've seen from Abdelkader in a long time. He was hitting everything in sight, causing turnovers, going hard to the net and got into the head of the Coyotes. He was basically what you'd wish Jordan Tootoo would be.
- Speaking of, is it possible Tootoo has a concussion? He just has not looked very sharp. He seems to always be a little off on his hits. I would not be shocked if something is not right with him.
- Who is bringing that stupid train whistle? That person should be banned, leave that crap in Nashville.
- Dan Cleary is still the worst. I know it's too much to hope that Holland does not sign him after the season, but please let it be for a cheap, one-year contract (and not three years with a number starting with a two). I will be ecstatic the first time I read the words "Daniel Cleary: Healthy scratch."
- I'm starting to like this Andersson, Brunner, Nyquist line. They've got speed, creativity and backcheck like crazy.
- Speaking of strong rookies: That Danny Dekeyser is giving me Ericsson rookie playoffs flashbacks. I still can't believe Detroit is playing five rookies, all in pretty significant roles.
- Doan, the Coyotes' top scorer, taking himself out of the game for 4 minutes late in the third period with the season on the line is the kind of thing that cements you as one of the all time greatest NHL leaders. Sadly, Mike Milbury blasted him for this idiocy, which means he and I agree. Yikes.
- Datsyuk passing up a sure goal so Abdelkader could then fail to score on the empty net was perfect.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Stanley Cup favorites: Boston Bruins
It's time to return to my series previewing the teams I consider legitimate cup contenders. If you're interested, here is my take on the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Montreal Canadiens. Today, I'll finish up the Eastern Conference favorites with the team I believe to be the best in the East.
In my view there is no more complete team in the East. The mighty Bruins are a little less than two years removed from their last Stanley Cup. At the time they combined amazing goaltending and defense with a group of talented but tough forwards who did not let the opposition touch the puck very often. Little has changed for the Bruins.
The defense is still anchored by the massive Zdeno Chara. The 35-year-old veteran remains one of the higher scoring defenseman in the league, but, most importantly continues to eat up nearly 25 minutes of ice a night. He faces the toughest competition and yet still has one of the top 30 Corsi numbers among defenseman, meaning when he's on the ice the shots are going the other direction. The staunch blue-line has also been bolstered by the sensational rookie defenseman Dougie Hamilton. At age 19, the rookie is playing 17 minutes a night and though he's facing lighter competition, has a better Corsi number than Chara, and only trails him by 2 points. And on top of that, the Bruins added Wade Redden before the trade deadline.
Boston'sunlikeable forward core remains little changed from the cup year. Marchand, Bergeron, Seguin, Krejci, Horton, and Lucic are either entering or in their prime and provide excellent talent up and down the lineup. Bergeron, in particular, has slowly morphed into perhaps the most complete player in the league. He has a good chance at winning his second Selke trophy as the best defensive forward, he's dominated the face-off circle (62%), and scored at almost a point a game pace. With the salary cap, most teams do not have the depth to roll four lines, but the Bruins do. That depth gives them the luxury of playing trade acquisition Jaromir Jagr on the third line. By the way, Jagr's 33 points are still 5 better than the man Boston missed out on first, Jerome Iginla.
The biggest change for the Bruins this year was the switch in net from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask. The 26-year-old Finlander has been outstanding, posting nearly a .93 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average. Rask has yet to carry a huge number of games over a long season, but he's nearly always been excellent in his young career. His career numbers .927 SV% and 2.15 GAA are actually better than Thomas' (.921 SV% and 2.48 GAA). Yet, Rask has not been lauded with the same praise. A deep playoff run this year could cement Rask in the Vezina conversation for years to come.
Given Boston's immense depth, it should be no surprise that they are the best puck possession playoff team in the conference with a Fenwick Close percentage of 53.91. Add everything up and Boston should again be in the Stanley Cup final. Of course, a huge amount of luck is involved in the playoffs and things could easily go against the Bruins. Boston will be in a dog fight to the end of the season with Montreal to secure the No. 2 seed in the East. That could mean the difference between playing Pittsburgh in the second round instead of the conference final. And despite allowing the third fewest goals this season, the excellent team depth has only translated into a league average offense (tied for 14th). And Boston has had a little better than average puck luck with a 1008 PDO. But the Bruins remain my pick to come out of the East, and that could set up an outstanding final series if one of the other recent cup winners in the West is there to meet them.
Boston
In my view there is no more complete team in the East. The mighty Bruins are a little less than two years removed from their last Stanley Cup. At the time they combined amazing goaltending and defense with a group of talented but tough forwards who did not let the opposition touch the puck very often. Little has changed for the Bruins.
The blue line
The defense is still anchored by the massive Zdeno Chara. The 35-year-old veteran remains one of the higher scoring defenseman in the league, but, most importantly continues to eat up nearly 25 minutes of ice a night. He faces the toughest competition and yet still has one of the top 30 Corsi numbers among defenseman, meaning when he's on the ice the shots are going the other direction. The staunch blue-line has also been bolstered by the sensational rookie defenseman Dougie Hamilton. At age 19, the rookie is playing 17 minutes a night and though he's facing lighter competition, has a better Corsi number than Chara, and only trails him by 2 points. And on top of that, the Bruins added Wade Redden before the trade deadline.
The forwards
Boston's
Goaltending
The biggest change for the Bruins this year was the switch in net from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask. The 26-year-old Finlander has been outstanding, posting nearly a .93 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average. Rask has yet to carry a huge number of games over a long season, but he's nearly always been excellent in his young career. His career numbers .927 SV% and 2.15 GAA are actually better than Thomas' (.921 SV% and 2.48 GAA). Yet, Rask has not been lauded with the same praise. A deep playoff run this year could cement Rask in the Vezina conversation for years to come.
Given Boston's immense depth, it should be no surprise that they are the best puck possession playoff team in the conference with a Fenwick Close percentage of 53.91. Add everything up and Boston should again be in the Stanley Cup final. Of course, a huge amount of luck is involved in the playoffs and things could easily go against the Bruins. Boston will be in a dog fight to the end of the season with Montreal to secure the No. 2 seed in the East. That could mean the difference between playing Pittsburgh in the second round instead of the conference final. And despite allowing the third fewest goals this season, the excellent team depth has only translated into a league average offense (tied for 14th). And Boston has had a little better than average puck luck with a 1008 PDO. But the Bruins remain my pick to come out of the East, and that could set up an outstanding final series if one of the other recent cup winners in the West is there to meet them.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Welcome to the Bridgestone Winter Ordinary
I try not to be one of those people who hates everything for no other reason than that's what we all do now. But man, I'm really not a fan of the NHL's decision to add an additional five outdoor games to the Winter Classic. It's irrational to decry the cheapening of tradition when the tradition itself is only five years old and the entire enterprise was full of faux nostalgia and quite contrived to begin with. But since when have sports fans been rational?
The NHL very successfully built up mystique around the Winter Classic and it quickly became an exclusive event that every team wanted to host. Reports abound about what a cash cow the Winter Classic is for the league and the teams involved. But for the fan it felt like this was a reward for them as well. Participating in the Winter Classic was validation that your team was an important and respected franchise. And you could feel a part of that success because the fan-base had been deemed worthy to support such a big event. This was not an All Star game in Columbus, Ohio or an entry draft in Nashville, Tenn. This was the WINTER CLASSIC.
But already the announcement has made the outdoor extravaganza feel more routine, more ordinary. To attend the Winter Classic most teams require you to buy tickets to all of the supporting games and events. Hundreds of thousands of fans have been willing to pay the price, because after all, you'd be able to say you were one of the lucky ones to see that rare game in person. But will that still be the case when this changes from a once-a-decade phenomena to something that you'll have the opportunity to attend a few times a season (at least if you're the New York Rangers)?
What will these changes mean for the partnership with HBO? Probably my favorite part of the Winter Classic has been the fantastic 24/7 series. Even when I despised both teams involved, seeing the inside the dressing room view drove up my interest in the actual game. I doubt HBO will be doing a series for each outdoor game, and if the novelty of the Winter Classic itself wears off, how long will they continue with the original series?
And I just can't shake the feeling that this is somehow Gary Bettman's pay back to the rich franchises for going along with his lockout.
But in the end, the biggest thing that annoys me about this is the NHL again taking for granted something great for short-sighted gain. Last Sunday's episode of Mad Men captured this problem perfectly when a local car dealer tried to push Don Draper away from the sophisticated national campaign on Jaguar to include local radio spots to boost dealership walk-ons. Don knew Jaguar was a luxury product, that it should feel exclusive, that what makes it great is precisely the fact that average Joes aren't buying it. Sometimes it's not about how many dollars you're bringing in, but where those dollars are coming from. It's not hard to imagine how the NHL's dilution of the Winter Classic actually results in the end of outdoor games. Four years from now when every team in the league has participated in one, how many people are really going to show up to the Rose Bowl to watch the Ducks play the Seattle Coyotes?
The NHL very successfully built up mystique around the Winter Classic and it quickly became an exclusive event that every team wanted to host. Reports abound about what a cash cow the Winter Classic is for the league and the teams involved. But for the fan it felt like this was a reward for them as well. Participating in the Winter Classic was validation that your team was an important and respected franchise. And you could feel a part of that success because the fan-base had been deemed worthy to support such a big event. This was not an All Star game in Columbus, Ohio or an entry draft in Nashville, Tenn. This was the WINTER CLASSIC.
But already the announcement has made the outdoor extravaganza feel more routine, more ordinary. To attend the Winter Classic most teams require you to buy tickets to all of the supporting games and events. Hundreds of thousands of fans have been willing to pay the price, because after all, you'd be able to say you were one of the lucky ones to see that rare game in person. But will that still be the case when this changes from a once-a-decade phenomena to something that you'll have the opportunity to attend a few times a season (at least if you're the New York Rangers)?
What will these changes mean for the partnership with HBO? Probably my favorite part of the Winter Classic has been the fantastic 24/7 series. Even when I despised both teams involved, seeing the inside the dressing room view drove up my interest in the actual game. I doubt HBO will be doing a series for each outdoor game, and if the novelty of the Winter Classic itself wears off, how long will they continue with the original series?
And I just can't shake the feeling that this is somehow Gary Bettman's pay back to the rich franchises for going along with his lockout.
But in the end, the biggest thing that annoys me about this is the NHL again taking for granted something great for short-sighted gain. Last Sunday's episode of Mad Men captured this problem perfectly when a local car dealer tried to push Don Draper away from the sophisticated national campaign on Jaguar to include local radio spots to boost dealership walk-ons. Don knew Jaguar was a luxury product, that it should feel exclusive, that what makes it great is precisely the fact that average Joes aren't buying it. Sometimes it's not about how many dollars you're bringing in, but where those dollars are coming from. It's not hard to imagine how the NHL's dilution of the Winter Classic actually results in the end of outdoor games. Four years from now when every team in the league has participated in one, how many people are really going to show up to the Rose Bowl to watch the Ducks play the Seattle Coyotes?
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Stanley Cup favorites: Montreal Canadiens
This is part two of my series on the teams I view as the
Stanley Cup favorites. You can read part one on the
Pittsburgh Penguins here.
Montreal
After last year when the Canadiens finished dead last in the
Eastern conference I did not expect them to rebound this quickly. But have they
ever! In this sprint of a season the Candiens have been invigorated by rookies
Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk, the resurgence of a healthy Andrei
Markov, and most of all the emergence of a trio of young stars entering their
prime Carey Price, Max Pacioretty, and P. K. Subban.
Montreal has rebounded from being a below average scoring team
last year (19th overall) to ranking 5th in goals scored.
This has been driven by the power play. Montreal is ranked 4th in
power play percentage (21.89%) but has scored a league leading 37 PPGs due to
the fact that they’ve also drawn the most penalties in the league. And Montreal
is drawing all of these penalties because it usually has the puck. The
Canadiens Fenwick Close number ranks 4th in the league at 53.57%.
The team’s PDO (combined shooting and save percentage) is a little high (1013),
good for 9th in the league. Their luck may have started to turn, as
they gave up 12 goals in the past two games. But the strong puck possession
numbers suggest their place among the Eastern conference elite is not a fluke.
The NHL playoffs are always unpredictable, and anything can
happen, especially in the first round. But with its power play supplying the
offense and a decent chance that Price gets hot, Montreal could have a recipe for a
deep playoff run coming almost 20 years since Les Habitants last raised Lord
Stanley’s Cup.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Stanley Cup favorites: Pittsbirgh Penguins
As the shortened season begins to wind down I've been starting to think about the playoffs. Though the first-round pairings likely won't be set until the last few games are complete, it's not too early to take a look at the teams I think are most likely to take home the Stanley Cup. Up first, I'll look at the Eastern conference favorites.
With the exception of the Kings, most of the recent champions have been top 10 scoring teams. And LA was a different team last season after the Jeff Carter trade. Scoring is obviously Pittsburgh's strength, as only one other playoff team (Chicago) is even within 10 total goals. And after the trade deadline the commentate named them the clear winner. Pittsburgh will likely lock up the top seed for home ice throughout the playoffs. But I wouldn't give the Penguins the cup just yet.
Despite all the positives, when looking at the advanced stats there are some clear weaknesses for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is only 14th in Fenwick close (50.79), meaning when the game is close and 5-on-5, the Penguins are only slightly out-shooting the competition. Additionally, Pittsburgh also has the second highest PDO number in the league (1026). This is the result of the 3rd highest team save percentage and 5th highest shooting percentage. As I've mentioned in the past, shooting percentage and save percentage have a strong regression to the mean the more games you play. So I expect their goal scoring to slow down and at the same time their goalies to start letting a few more slip in. If the Penguins were dominating possession more with a higher Fenwick number, I would be more confident in their numbers and results.
Pittsburgh always seems to have the same big question marks: Goaltending and health. Marc-Andre Fleury is not a good goalie. You hear sometimes that he's a playoff veteran, and that is true. Pittsburgh has stuck with him despite 75 games of subpar goaltending (.904 SV% and 2.68 GAA). And though his numbers have been strong in 29 games this season, his career numbers suggest they won't last.
And as for health, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, James Neal, are players any team in the league would want. But they're also players who have struggled to stay on the ice. Only time will tell if the Penguins enter the playoffs as a fully armed and operational battle station.
Pittsburgh
With the exception of the Kings, most of the recent champions have been top 10 scoring teams. And LA was a different team last season after the Jeff Carter trade. Scoring is obviously Pittsburgh's strength, as only one other playoff team (Chicago) is even within 10 total goals. And after the trade deadline the commentate named them the clear winner. Pittsburgh will likely lock up the top seed for home ice throughout the playoffs. But I wouldn't give the Penguins the cup just yet.
Despite all the positives, when looking at the advanced stats there are some clear weaknesses for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is only 14th in Fenwick close (50.79), meaning when the game is close and 5-on-5, the Penguins are only slightly out-shooting the competition. Additionally, Pittsburgh also has the second highest PDO number in the league (1026). This is the result of the 3rd highest team save percentage and 5th highest shooting percentage. As I've mentioned in the past, shooting percentage and save percentage have a strong regression to the mean the more games you play. So I expect their goal scoring to slow down and at the same time their goalies to start letting a few more slip in. If the Penguins were dominating possession more with a higher Fenwick number, I would be more confident in their numbers and results.
Pittsburgh always seems to have the same big question marks: Goaltending and health. Marc-Andre Fleury is not a good goalie. You hear sometimes that he's a playoff veteran, and that is true. Pittsburgh has stuck with him despite 75 games of subpar goaltending (.904 SV% and 2.68 GAA). And though his numbers have been strong in 29 games this season, his career numbers suggest they won't last.
And as for health, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, James Neal, are players any team in the league would want. But they're also players who have struggled to stay on the ice. Only time will tell if the Penguins enter the playoffs as a fully armed and operational battle station.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Red Wings no longer doing goaltending on the cheap
Well, looks like Jimmy Howard's numbers finally came up. $5.3
million a year for the next six years. That is a serious commitment. The type
of commitment Detroit has not really made to goalies in the past. Even when
they were chasing down the top paid goalies in the league, those deals were at
least for shorter term.
The advanced stats blogs have praised Detroit as being ahead
of the curve in this regard. Most goalies fluctuate in performance from
year-to-year. So unless you’re getting one of the few consistent performers
(who usually command top dollar), you want to be careful.
For the past three years, Detroit has gotten a bargain with
Howard. He’s played an average of 61 games and far out-performed his contract. Those
days are over.
Starting next year at $5.3 million per year, Howard will
have the 10th highest salary among goalies and the 11th
highest cap hit. (Thank you Cap Geek) Here
is where Howard stacks up with the other top 20 cap hits.|
Name
|
Age
|
Team
|
Expiry
|
Salary
|
Cap Hit
| |
|
30
|
2019
|
$7,000,000
|
$7,000,000
| |||
|
31
|
2014
|
$5,125,000
|
$6,875,000
| |||
|
25
|
2018
|
$5,750,000
|
$6,500,000
| |||
|
29
|
2016
|
$6,600,000
|
$6,300,000
| |||
|
32
|
2014
|
$6,250,000
|
$6,250,000
| |||
|
29
|
2018
|
$6,250,000
|
$5,900,000
| |||
|
36
|
2014
|
$1,500,000
|
$5,833,333
| |||
|
27
|
2023
|
$7,000,000
|
$5,800,000
| |||
|
32
|
2020
|
$8,000,000
|
$5,666,667
| |||
|
34
|
2022
|
$6,714,000
|
$5,333,333
| |||
|
29
|
2019
|
$5,300,000
|
$5,300,000
| |||
|
28
|
2015
|
$5,750,000
|
$5,000,000
| |||
|
31
|
2014
|
$4,500,000
|
$4,500,000
| |||
|
40
|
2014
|
$5,000,000
|
$4,500,000
| |||
|
31
|
2021
|
$4,500,000
|
$4,500,000
| |||
|
27
|
2015
|
$4,000,000
|
$4,000,000
| |||
|
25
|
2017
|
$3,500,000
|
$3,900,000
| |||
|
29
|
2015
|
$4,000,000
|
$3,800,000
| |||
|
27
|
2014
|
$4,500,000
|
$3,750,000
| |||
|
26
|
2014
|
$3,750,000
|
$3,500,000
| |||
|
31
|
2015
|
$3,500,000
|
$3,187,500
|
Looking at the list, it seems Howard is now slotted in about
the right place. Of the five guys right above him, I’d say only Quick and
Luongo are better. Lehtonen cannot stay healthy, Kiprusoff is retiring and
Bryzgalov is laughably overpaid. Similarly, Howard does not look out of place
with the five guys below him.
Howard is not often going to steal a game, but usually, he’s
not going to lose you the game either. When he’s on, he can be a top 5-10
goalie, but usually he’s going to slot in around the 10-15 spot statistically.
I’d say Howard is being fairly paid now. Had he hit the open
market as a free agent, maybe he could have made more (though I find that a bit
hard to believe). On the flip side, I would have liked this contract a lot more
if it were only for three-four years. Six years is a long time for a player who
is about to enter his 30s.
I wonder what this will mean for Detroit’s prospect Petr
Mrazek. He has been fantastic in Grand Rapids as a 21-year-old rookie. If he
duplicates that performance next year, it will be hard to leave him in the
minors much longer.
And most of all, I wonder what this contract will mean for
Detroit’s other free agents (mostly Filppula and Brunner). With the salary cap
dropping $6 million and Howard getting a $3 million raise, that leaves just
more than $12.5 million in cap space for nine players whose contracts are
expiring this year.
Only time will tell if this contract works out to be a deal
Ken Holland regrets.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)