Stanley Cup favorites: Pittsbirgh Penguins

As the shortened season begins to wind down I've been starting to think about the playoffs. Though the first-round pairings likely won't be set until the last few games are complete, it's not too early to take a look at the teams I think are most likely to take home the Stanley Cup. Up first, I'll look at the Eastern conference favorites.

Pittsburgh

With the exception of the Kings, most of the recent champions have been top 10 scoring teams. And LA was a different team last season after the Jeff Carter trade. Scoring is obviously Pittsburgh's strength, as only one other playoff team (Chicago) is even within 10 total goals. And after the trade deadline the commentate named them the clear winner. Pittsburgh will likely lock up the top seed for home ice throughout the playoffs. But I wouldn't give the Penguins the cup just yet.

Despite all the positives, when looking at the advanced stats there are some clear weaknesses for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is only 14th in Fenwick close (50.79), meaning when the game is close and 5-on-5, the Penguins are only slightly out-shooting the competition. Additionally, Pittsburgh also has the second highest PDO number in the league (1026). This is the result of the 3rd highest team save percentage and 5th highest shooting percentage. As I've mentioned in the past, shooting percentage and save percentage have a strong regression to the mean the more games you play. So I expect their goal scoring to slow down and at the same time their goalies to start letting a few more slip in. If the Penguins were dominating possession more with a higher Fenwick number, I would be more confident in their numbers and results.

Pittsburgh always seems to have the same big question marks: Goaltending and health. Marc-Andre Fleury is not a good goalie. You hear sometimes that he's a playoff veteran, and that is true. Pittsburgh has stuck with him despite 75 games of subpar goaltending (.904 SV% and 2.68 GAA). And though his numbers have been strong in 29 games this season, his career numbers suggest they won't last.

And as for health, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, James Neal, are players any team in the league would want. But they're also players who have struggled to stay on the ice. Only time will tell if the Penguins enter the playoffs as a fully armed and operational battle station.