Sunday, March 10, 2013

My 2013 Red Wing of the year

I don't know if you are like me, or maybe it's just a Detroit thing, but I suspect it is universal. Every season there is a player or players who become my whipping boy. The symbol for all my frustrations with the team I cheer. This happens without fail. I'm sure back in 2002 when Detroit had nine future hall of famers, possibly 10 (Datsyuk?) I was still able to find someone to complain about each game. I can't remember it now, so my best guess is it was Boyd Devereaux.

Even though it might be amazing to watch a team of Datsyuk and Lidstrom clones, the artistic hockey they would weave might become boring in its perfection. There is strangely something almost pleasing knowing there are subpar players on the roster you can count on to make your face turn red, heart rate increase, as you curse them under your breath.

What would the game be if you lacked the defenseman who pinches at the wrong time or sends his outlet passes directly to the other team? Or the forward who takes a penalty in the offensive zone, or gets cute at the blue line, sending his foes on an odd-man rush in the opposite direction?

For the past few seasons, (with the exception of the year Ruslan Salei joined Detroit, RIP) this frustrating player has been Jonathon Ericcson. But this year Ericcson just might be the Red Wings' best defenseman (and that tells you a lot about the 2013 d-core). So who are the candidates to be my new (least) favorite Red Wing?

 

Kyle Quincey


From the blogs and columns I've read, Kyle Quincey was the early season favorite for a lot of people. His slump was almost fascinating to watch. I found I couldn't even get mad at his miscues any more, I just felt bad for him. He played games as if he'd lost complete confidence and perhaps even the ability to play at the NHL level. If he wasn't sitting in the box for a boneheaded penalty, he was struggling to complete the most basic elements of hockey: taking a shot that wasn't easily blocked, keeping the puck inside the blue line, catching a pass without bobbling it into his own goalie. That last one happened while I was watching at a bar and a random dude sitting next to me nearly lost it, quickly asking me if that was supposed to happen.

But luckily for Quincey, Detroit's defensemen were decimated by injuries, meaning he was still playing at least 15 minutes a night by necessity. He worked through that slump, and though his offensive totals are still lagging, he's been one of the best defensive players on the roster over the past 12-15 games. And not even in the "good for a Detroit defenseman" sense. Legitimately defending at a top four level.

Dan Cleary


Cleary is an interesting player in that his skill level has often raised expectations beyond what he's actually capable of doing. Once upon a time he put up 115 points in one season (64 games) in junior and was drafted 13th overall by Chicago. But in parts of six seasons with three different teams he only cracked 30 points once at the NHL level. After BL2 (Bettman's lockout 2.0) Cleary seemed like he was nearly on his way out of the league. But he caught on with the Red Wings as a fourth-liner and gradually turned into a consistent 35-40 point scorer. But somehow it seems like we always want more from him. I think a lot of it stems from the 2009 playoffs when he scored 9 goals and generally played like a man possessed in front of the net.

This year, as names like Franzen, Filpulla, Bertuzzi, Helm spent time on the injured list, it seemed like Cleary would benefit from added time on the power play and in the top six. But for quite a while that extra opportunity was squandered. And not only was Cleary failing to produce, he was taking penalties left and right. In 25 games this year he has 24 PIMs, just six shy of his total for 75 games last season! Cleary seemed a step slow. His stick was always just shy of connecting with the pass. His shots always seemed to hit the goalie's pads. But lately he's begun to show life. He's now fourth on the team in goals. He's only taken one minor penalty in the past 12 games. And he's been strong in the puck possession numbers (8.5 corsi), meaning when he's on the ice shots are going toward the other net and not at Detroit's.

While Cleary has certainly had me pulling my hair out at times, it's important to remember what he is and what he's not.

Nick Kronwall


While amazingly some people are talking about Kronwall as a possible Norris favorite, I'm one of those old fashioned guys who thinks the league's best defenseman should at least be the best defensive player on his own team. Though I do think the hype around Kronwall's season has more to do with the lack of consistency among the new guard of elite defenders, and the fact that Erik Karlsson is out for the year. Is there much doubt that had Nick Lidstrom come back for one more year he'd again be in the picture for another Norris trophy? Sigh.

Kronwall's offensive numbers (18 points) have been strong this year, but despite this he remains a -3. He has cut down on the truckload of penalties he was taking in the early going. And Kronwall can still make some amazing defensive plays. Unfortunately, those plays too often come following one of his own turnovers. Kronwall has been playing the tough minutes for Detroit, but I think it's pretty clear, he has not been equal to the task. He is a very good offensively gifted defenseman, but he's too prone to mistakes: pinching at the wrong time, losing the man he should be covering, turnovers instead of the safe play. But there is one more player who still stands above Kronwall for my ire.

Justin Abdelkader


Abdelkader is 26. This is fourth full season in the NHL. Unless something drastic happens, the player he is now is the player he's going to be for the rest of his career. And that's unfortunate for the Red Wings, because Abdelkader is clearly a fourth-liner and possibly not even above NHL replacement level. With all of the injuries this year Abdelkader has been playing heavy minutes with Pavel Datsyuk and even some on the power play. After 25 games he has a lone assist and an empty net goal. It's true playing with Datsyuk means facing top competition, and he does contribute on the penalty kill. But when the penalty kill is ranked 25th in the league, is that something to brag about? Abdelkader is supposed to add sandpaper to the lineup and he does lead the team in hits, but too often those hits are not memorable and seem to rarely lead to a turnover.

Yet Abdelkader continues to play in the top six over more deserving forwards such as Tatar, Eaves, and even Andersson. Eventually the Wings will get healthy and someone in the lineup now will have to take a seat. Should it be Andersson or Tatar who have outplayed Abdelkader? And this is just a preview of what's to come. The Wings have great prospect depth at forward and soon names like Nyquist, Sheahan, Jurco, Jarnkrok and Ferraro will be knocking on the NHL door. But Ken Holland has committed to paying Abdelkader almost $6 million over the next three seasons. If the Wings continue to spend to the cap and aspire to the cup than Abdelkader will likely be moved back down into the bottom six. Meaning he'll be taking up a spot that could go to a promising prospect. And unlike Abdelkader, these players are young enough that they're still improving.

I think about all these factors every time Abdelkader kills the cycle in the offensive zone, every time he's unprepared for Datsyuk's pass, every time another power play goal is scored against Detroit. So congrats Justin, you're my 2013 Red Wing of the year.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Can the Blackhawks be stopped?

So far this season the Chicago Blackhawks have looked every bit the cup favorite they were expected to be and playing up to their potential for the first time since they won it all in 2010. This crazy points streak has made a couple things clear. Chicago is really, really good. And the NHL points system is maybe a bit stupid. Chicago has six points that would not have happened back in the old "tie" days of the NHL (as a result of three extra time losses and three shootout wins). Anaheim leads the league with seven fake points.

But unlike Anaheim, I think Chicago is the real deal. I think this because of the latest hot NHL stat: PDO. This stat is kind of like the puck luck stat. We've seen puck luck in action a million times. One team carries the play, peppering the other goalie with shot after shot, but can't score. Meanwhile, the team that never seems to have the puck somehow scores on every odd chance they seem to get.

PDO attempts to make sense of this by adding up a team's shooting percentage and team save percentage. Over an entire season, most teams eventually average out to numbers that add up to about 100%. 9% of their shots go in and their goalies stop about 91% of the shots they face. So a team whose PDO is higher than 100% is probably getting a little better puck luck than they will see in the future.

Chicago has definitely been lucky earning so many points this year, in part behind a higher team save percentage (93%) than is sustainable. But even when the puck luck turns against Chicago and that save percentage dips back toward a normal level around, their offense is still probably going to be enough to keep getting points out of most games.

Anaheim on the other hand, they are ready for a fall. At this point we should probably just call them "Last year's Minnesota." They are scoring on an above average number of shots (11.7%) and also saving more shots than they should (92%). This adds up to an ugly stretch of games where all the bounces seem to go the other way as the Ducks suddenly can't score or keep the puck out of their own net. The question is whether Anaheim's fast start will be enough to keep them in the playoff race once the luck turns.

Chicago on the other hand might be the best team in the league. Their forwards and defenseman are as deep as they come. And now that they are building on the best start in league history, they will have the ability to rest players more and keep fresh as this sprint of a season closes - putting them in the perfect position to bring the cup back to Chicago.

For comparisons sake, I looked up how some of the other fast start teams fared when all was said and done. The '06-'07 Sabres who held the best start record that Chicago just shattered made it to the conference finals before injuries decimated their cup hopes. The best start in Bettman's first lockout half-season back in '94-'95 went to the Penguins. They had the misfortune of running into the neutral zone trap of the eventual cup champion New Jersey Devils in the second round.

So while Chicago's historic start portends great things, come playoff time, they will still be at the mercy of the hockey gods and their fickle puck luck.