Back from the holidays, Amy Fiscus calls in to talk Olympic rosters, video review, and staged fights.
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As a son of the Midwest, I grew up watching the classic battles of the Norris Division. This blog is my tribute to the frozen game. It's a place for me to share thoughts and ideas about the sport I love above all others. I've invited friends to post their thoughts here as well. I hope you enjoy. - Adam
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
Checking in on the Red Wings at the halfway point
Though the Winter Classic was technically the first game of the second half of the season for Detroit, it seemed like a good time to stop and look at where
the team is at.
The Red Wings have been decimated by injuries, have struggled to score goals (17th), or prevent them (22nd) and their only consistent play was during two losing streaks of seven and six games (where they were consistently bad). Yet in a league that rewards losers with points and has one supremely mediocre conference the Red Wings find themselves with the sixth most points in the Eastern Conference and the inside track on the last wild card playoff spot.
While Detroit has been plenty frustrating to watch this year, there has actually been a fair amount to be happy about.
First, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg have been fantastic again this season. They have missed a few games (something I've come to expect of the aged duo). But when in the lineup they've both been nearly point-per-game players. All while playing some of the hardest minutes in the league against the toughest competition without the benefit of heavy offensive zone starts. One day these guys are going to slip, but luckily we're not there yet.
Similarly Nicklas Kronwall is submitting an excellent season. He's tied for 5th in league scoring among defensemen, has lined up against the top opposing forwards every night and yet has an even strength Corsi of 52.3%, meaning more than half the shots when he's on the ice are going toward the opposition's net.
Another veteran who has kept Detroit in a playoff spot is new addition Daniel Alfredsson. Unlike some of the past veteran signings by the Wings, Alfredsson has worked out amazingly well. At 41, he's been a consistent top six forward, scoring 30 points in 36 games. The ageless Swede could very well lead the team in goals by season's end.
And while the injuries have probably resulted in a lower place in the standings, the team was finally forced to give important playing time to some of the younger players. Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist have cemented their place in the starting lineup. Tomas Jurco got a chance to experience NHL speed before likely coming back to stay next year. If I were in the GM chair he would not be in Grand Rapids. And Danny Dekeyser and Brendan Smith are both playing big minutes.
Jonas Gustavsson also somehow played 17 games while maintaining a save percentage higher than .910, something he's never accomplished in his career (and likely never will again).
Oh, boy, the bad. What is it about Ken Holland and that extra year on the contract? His itchy signing finger has the team locked into several contracts I'm sure he regrets now.
Let's get the obvious one out of the way. Mikael Samuelsson. What does it say about you when 8 regular players are injured and your coach/GM are bringing up players from the AHL before dressing you? Slamin' Sammy, as no one calls him, has pretty much been relegated to the fourth line when he has played. He has gotten a few looks in the top six and always plays on the second power play unit even when on the fourth line.
He's faced some of the weakest competition and mostly started shifts in the offensive zone. Despite these factors, he's scored only three points in 21 games. Not exactly the kind of production you want from someone making $3 million (almost six-times the league minimum salary). My best guess is he'll continue to stay on the bench until close to the trade deadline, when most of his salary has been paid and he can be picked up for a conditional seventh round pick.
Only two players have dressed for every Wings game this season. Drew Miller and … Kyle Quincey. How is it that of all the players to dodge the injury bug, one of them is the walking blood pressure test that is Kyle Quincey? Q does face some of the tougher competition among Wings defensemen and starts in his own zone more often than any other Detroit defender. Unfortunately, his numbers seem to reflect this tough assignment. His Corsi rating is 2.3% lower than the team average, he's a team worst -14 and his 49 minutes in penalties easily lead the team. Put simply, Quincey has done the exact opposite of rising to the challenge. Hey, at least his contract comes off the books after this season.
It's early yet, but Stephen Weiss has been a disastrous signing. While the Red Wings are known for their puck possession game, Weiss is in the bottom 25 players by Corsi in the entire league. THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. That means he's driving the play at the same level as fourth-line enforcers and AHL call ups. This is despite the fact that Weiss was starting almost 58% of his face-offs in the offensive zone. It's possible Weiss has been much more hampered by injuries than anyone realized and that once healthy he'll return to an elite level. The Red Wings had better hope so, with 90% of his nearly $25 million contract remaining to be played out over the next 4.5 seasons.
While the Weiss signing certainly looks catastrophic, there are plenty of other bad deals on the roster. Patrick Eaves was never moved, despite the fact that he became mostly a redundant piece when Detroit resigned Drew Miller. It's great to have depth, but how many fourth-line penalty killing experts do you need?
Jordin Tootoo's deal was bad the second it was signed. It's obvious no one was knocking down the door to sign Twos, why give him three years and almost $6 million? Before the first year was done he'd already been displaced on the roster. It would be one thing if Tootoo could kill penalties or chip in a little offense. If Detroit were overflowing with goals, I could see keeping the little guy around for his energy and scrappiness. But when your team is hoping to win 2-1 every night, a roster spot reserved for a face-puncher is a luxury. Tootoo will likely spend his remaining 1.5 seasons in the AHL before signing on to the KHL (unless he's bought out first).
It's early, but I think we can put Jakub Kindl's contract in this category. Kindl plays some of the softest minutes on the team, and yet is just barely above the team Corsi average. If he were an impact player he'd be driving shots the other way with his easy assignment, and that's just not happening. Kindl's cap hit is not bad at $2.4 million, but the Red Wings are stocked with defensive prospects and by year four of this deal, Kindl likely will be taking time, money and a roster spot that should be going to someone else. I think Kindl is a strong candidate to be traded sooner, rather than later.
And talk of bad contracts would not be complete if I did not mention Dan Cleary. It's not that Cleary's contract is that bad, he has half a year left on his deal with a $1.75 million cap hit. Sure, Cleary's performance could have been replicated by an AHLer making the league minimum; he's definitely being overpaid. In the four games Riley Sheahan played this year, he matched a third of the points Cleary's scored in 41 games.
But the real reason Cleary's contract is bad is that it prevented him from signing a much worse deal with Philadelphia. If Mike Babcock had just kept quiet, Cleary could be wearing orange and black now with 2.5 years and $6 million remaining on his contract. The move would have put the Flyers further over the salary cap and likely resulted in the team moving a legitimate NHLer off the roster to make space for the decrepit Cleary. Every edge you can get counts, so you should never prevent your foe from shooting himself in the foot.
The most frustrating part about these small contracts is that they add up. Take Eaves, Samuelsson, Cleary and Kindl off the books and you've suddenly got almost $8.5 million in cap space to work with. It would be one thing if these veterans were contributing above and beyond what the Wings have gotten from the AHL kids, but the reverse is likely true. These players are either at the bottom of the lineup, stuck on the bench or wasting time in the minors. Meanwhile the going rate for a top pair defenseman is in the $5-7 million range.
Year one of Jim Howard's new, nearly $32 million dollar deal has not gone according to plan. Howard was a big reason the team made it into the playoffs last year and just shy of the conference finals. This year, you could make the case he's done more than most in hurting the team's playoff chances. Before getting injured for three weeks, Howard was posting a career worst .907 save percentage. In his return from injury he looked putrid, giving up 5 goals to the offensively challenged Predators. But there is reason to think this funk will pass. In three out of Howard's four full seasons he's posted numbers better than .920%. If he rebounds to that level of play, the Wings will start banking points at a much higher rate and move out of the wild card spot.
While the first half of the year has been a challenge with injuries, poor performances and regrettable contracts, there is hope that the fortunes will turn in the New Year. Detroit's Fenwick number (the percentage of even strength, non-blocked shot attempts when the score is close) is 13th in the league at 51.4%. Historically being above 50% is good enough to get into the playoffs. This is the lowest rate the Wings have had in several years, but I expect this number to climb.
Darren Helm and Johan Franzen should be back soon from injury. Tatar and Nyquist were needlessly held out of the lineup for the first 15-20 games of the season and are both some of the best puck possession players on the team. Dekeyser and Smith have tons of potential and will hopefully continue improving. I expect Howard to rebound to his normal performance level. And there is always the hope that Ken Holland makes a move to improve the team by the trade deadline.
All of this should add up to a better second-half, climb up the standings and strong push into the playoffs. Hey, even if it doesn't, they're still in the East so they'll probably make the playoffs anyway.
The Red Wings have been decimated by injuries, have struggled to score goals (17th), or prevent them (22nd) and their only consistent play was during two losing streaks of seven and six games (where they were consistently bad). Yet in a league that rewards losers with points and has one supremely mediocre conference the Red Wings find themselves with the sixth most points in the Eastern Conference and the inside track on the last wild card playoff spot.
The good
While Detroit has been plenty frustrating to watch this year, there has actually been a fair amount to be happy about.
Magic and his Euro twin
First, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg have been fantastic again this season. They have missed a few games (something I've come to expect of the aged duo). But when in the lineup they've both been nearly point-per-game players. All while playing some of the hardest minutes in the league against the toughest competition without the benefit of heavy offensive zone starts. One day these guys are going to slip, but luckily we're not there yet.
Nick Jr.
Similarly Nicklas Kronwall is submitting an excellent season. He's tied for 5th in league scoring among defensemen, has lined up against the top opposing forwards every night and yet has an even strength Corsi of 52.3%, meaning more than half the shots when he's on the ice are going toward the opposition's net.
Some signings do work
Another veteran who has kept Detroit in a playoff spot is new addition Daniel Alfredsson. Unlike some of the past veteran signings by the Wings, Alfredsson has worked out amazingly well. At 41, he's been a consistent top six forward, scoring 30 points in 36 games. The ageless Swede could very well lead the team in goals by season's end.
Young guys get a chance
And while the injuries have probably resulted in a lower place in the standings, the team was finally forced to give important playing time to some of the younger players. Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist have cemented their place in the starting lineup. Tomas Jurco got a chance to experience NHL speed before likely coming back to stay next year. If I were in the GM chair he would not be in Grand Rapids. And Danny Dekeyser and Brendan Smith are both playing big minutes.
Hey, we'll take it
Jonas Gustavsson also somehow played 17 games while maintaining a save percentage higher than .910, something he's never accomplished in his career (and likely never will again).
The bad
Oh, boy, the bad. What is it about Ken Holland and that extra year on the contract? His itchy signing finger has the team locked into several contracts I'm sure he regrets now.
So … that's not good
Let's get the obvious one out of the way. Mikael Samuelsson. What does it say about you when 8 regular players are injured and your coach/GM are bringing up players from the AHL before dressing you? Slamin' Sammy, as no one calls him, has pretty much been relegated to the fourth line when he has played. He has gotten a few looks in the top six and always plays on the second power play unit even when on the fourth line.
He's faced some of the weakest competition and mostly started shifts in the offensive zone. Despite these factors, he's scored only three points in 21 games. Not exactly the kind of production you want from someone making $3 million (almost six-times the league minimum salary). My best guess is he'll continue to stay on the bench until close to the trade deadline, when most of his salary has been paid and he can be picked up for a conditional seventh round pick.
Iron man
Only two players have dressed for every Wings game this season. Drew Miller and … Kyle Quincey. How is it that of all the players to dodge the injury bug, one of them is the walking blood pressure test that is Kyle Quincey? Q does face some of the tougher competition among Wings defensemen and starts in his own zone more often than any other Detroit defender. Unfortunately, his numbers seem to reflect this tough assignment. His Corsi rating is 2.3% lower than the team average, he's a team worst -14 and his 49 minutes in penalties easily lead the team. Put simply, Quincey has done the exact opposite of rising to the challenge. Hey, at least his contract comes off the books after this season.
So about those other signings
It's early yet, but Stephen Weiss has been a disastrous signing. While the Red Wings are known for their puck possession game, Weiss is in the bottom 25 players by Corsi in the entire league. THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. That means he's driving the play at the same level as fourth-line enforcers and AHL call ups. This is despite the fact that Weiss was starting almost 58% of his face-offs in the offensive zone. It's possible Weiss has been much more hampered by injuries than anyone realized and that once healthy he'll return to an elite level. The Red Wings had better hope so, with 90% of his nearly $25 million contract remaining to be played out over the next 4.5 seasons.
While the Weiss signing certainly looks catastrophic, there are plenty of other bad deals on the roster. Patrick Eaves was never moved, despite the fact that he became mostly a redundant piece when Detroit resigned Drew Miller. It's great to have depth, but how many fourth-line penalty killing experts do you need?
Jordin Tootoo's deal was bad the second it was signed. It's obvious no one was knocking down the door to sign Twos, why give him three years and almost $6 million? Before the first year was done he'd already been displaced on the roster. It would be one thing if Tootoo could kill penalties or chip in a little offense. If Detroit were overflowing with goals, I could see keeping the little guy around for his energy and scrappiness. But when your team is hoping to win 2-1 every night, a roster spot reserved for a face-puncher is a luxury. Tootoo will likely spend his remaining 1.5 seasons in the AHL before signing on to the KHL (unless he's bought out first).
It's early, but I think we can put Jakub Kindl's contract in this category. Kindl plays some of the softest minutes on the team, and yet is just barely above the team Corsi average. If he were an impact player he'd be driving shots the other way with his easy assignment, and that's just not happening. Kindl's cap hit is not bad at $2.4 million, but the Red Wings are stocked with defensive prospects and by year four of this deal, Kindl likely will be taking time, money and a roster spot that should be going to someone else. I think Kindl is a strong candidate to be traded sooner, rather than later.
And talk of bad contracts would not be complete if I did not mention Dan Cleary. It's not that Cleary's contract is that bad, he has half a year left on his deal with a $1.75 million cap hit. Sure, Cleary's performance could have been replicated by an AHLer making the league minimum; he's definitely being overpaid. In the four games Riley Sheahan played this year, he matched a third of the points Cleary's scored in 41 games.
But the real reason Cleary's contract is bad is that it prevented him from signing a much worse deal with Philadelphia. If Mike Babcock had just kept quiet, Cleary could be wearing orange and black now with 2.5 years and $6 million remaining on his contract. The move would have put the Flyers further over the salary cap and likely resulted in the team moving a legitimate NHLer off the roster to make space for the decrepit Cleary. Every edge you can get counts, so you should never prevent your foe from shooting himself in the foot.
The most frustrating part about these small contracts is that they add up. Take Eaves, Samuelsson, Cleary and Kindl off the books and you've suddenly got almost $8.5 million in cap space to work with. It would be one thing if these veterans were contributing above and beyond what the Wings have gotten from the AHL kids, but the reverse is likely true. These players are either at the bottom of the lineup, stuck on the bench or wasting time in the minors. Meanwhile the going rate for a top pair defenseman is in the $5-7 million range.
Money in the bank
Year one of Jim Howard's new, nearly $32 million dollar deal has not gone according to plan. Howard was a big reason the team made it into the playoffs last year and just shy of the conference finals. This year, you could make the case he's done more than most in hurting the team's playoff chances. Before getting injured for three weeks, Howard was posting a career worst .907 save percentage. In his return from injury he looked putrid, giving up 5 goals to the offensively challenged Predators. But there is reason to think this funk will pass. In three out of Howard's four full seasons he's posted numbers better than .920%. If he rebounds to that level of play, the Wings will start banking points at a much higher rate and move out of the wild card spot.
What's next?
While the first half of the year has been a challenge with injuries, poor performances and regrettable contracts, there is hope that the fortunes will turn in the New Year. Detroit's Fenwick number (the percentage of even strength, non-blocked shot attempts when the score is close) is 13th in the league at 51.4%. Historically being above 50% is good enough to get into the playoffs. This is the lowest rate the Wings have had in several years, but I expect this number to climb.
Darren Helm and Johan Franzen should be back soon from injury. Tatar and Nyquist were needlessly held out of the lineup for the first 15-20 games of the season and are both some of the best puck possession players on the team. Dekeyser and Smith have tons of potential and will hopefully continue improving. I expect Howard to rebound to his normal performance level. And there is always the hope that Ken Holland makes a move to improve the team by the trade deadline.
All of this should add up to a better second-half, climb up the standings and strong push into the playoffs. Hey, even if it doesn't, they're still in the East so they'll probably make the playoffs anyway.
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