Saturday, April 20, 2013

Stanley Cup favorites: Boston Bruins

It's time to return to my series previewing the teams I consider legitimate cup contenders. If you're interested, here is my take on the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Montreal Canadiens. Today, I'll finish up the Eastern Conference favorites with the team I believe to be the best in the East.

Boston


In my view there is no more complete team in the East. The mighty Bruins are a little less than two years removed from their last Stanley Cup. At the time they combined amazing goaltending and defense with a group of talented but tough forwards who did not let the opposition touch the puck very often. Little has changed for the Bruins.

The blue line


The defense is still anchored by the massive Zdeno Chara. The 35-year-old veteran remains one of the higher scoring defenseman in the league, but, most importantly continues to eat up nearly 25 minutes of ice a night. He faces the toughest competition and yet still has one of the top 30 Corsi numbers among defenseman, meaning when he's on the ice the shots are going the other direction. The staunch blue-line has also been bolstered by the sensational rookie defenseman Dougie Hamilton. At age 19, the rookie is playing 17 minutes a night and though he's facing lighter competition, has a better Corsi number than Chara, and only trails him by 2 points. And on top of that, the Bruins added Wade Redden before the trade deadline.

The forwards


Boston's unlikeable forward core remains little changed from the cup year. Marchand,  Bergeron, Seguin, Krejci, Horton, and Lucic are either entering or in their prime and provide excellent talent up and down the lineup. Bergeron, in particular, has slowly morphed into perhaps the most complete player in the league. He has a good chance at winning his second Selke trophy as the best defensive forward, he's dominated the face-off circle (62%), and scored at almost a point a game pace. With the salary cap, most teams do not have the depth to roll four lines, but the Bruins do. That depth gives them the luxury of playing trade acquisition Jaromir Jagr on the third line. By the way, Jagr's 33 points are still 5 better than the man Boston missed out on first, Jerome Iginla.

Goaltending


The biggest change for the Bruins this year was the switch in net from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask. The 26-year-old Finlander has been outstanding, posting nearly a .93 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average. Rask has yet to carry a huge number of games over a long season, but he's nearly always been excellent in his young career. His career numbers .927 SV% and 2.15 GAA are actually better than Thomas' (.921 SV% and 2.48 GAA). Yet, Rask has not been lauded with the same praise. A deep playoff run this year could cement Rask in the Vezina conversation for years to come.

Given Boston's immense depth, it should be no surprise that they are the best puck possession playoff team in the conference with a Fenwick Close percentage of 53.91. Add everything up and Boston should again be in the Stanley Cup final. Of course, a huge amount of luck is involved in the playoffs and things could easily go against the Bruins. Boston will be in a dog fight to the end of the season with Montreal to secure the No. 2 seed in the East. That could mean the difference between playing Pittsburgh in the second round instead of the conference final. And despite allowing the third fewest goals this season, the excellent team depth has only translated into a league average offense (tied for 14th). And Boston has had a little better than average puck luck with a 1008 PDO. But the Bruins remain my pick to come out of the East, and that could set up an outstanding final series if one of the other recent cup winners in the West is there to meet them.


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