The NHL season has rolled around again, but wow, things have changed a lot for me. Really, the last 10 months have been a blur. That's because me and my wife welcomed our daughter Annabelle into our life.
I've picked up more than a few lessons since becoming a father. I've learned sleep deprivation is no joke. Learned how to almost literally change diapers in my sleep. And learned that "free time" for hobbies is not what it used to be. That's one reason my podcast output has dropped off a cliff.
But amazingly (or maybe to some, depressingly) I've still maintained my strong passion for hockey. I just have not quite had the time to put my thoughts into blog/pod form. What I have done is try to start passing on my love for the frozen game to Annabelle.
I have been dropping coin on Red Wings gear left and right (onesies, socks, hats, mini jerseys), mini hockey sticks, and every plush octopus I come across.
Generally, we try to limit my daughter's screen time. But flipping on the overtime playoff games proved too tempting on several late nights when I was up with Annabelle. Maybe watching the vibrant jerseys flash across the white ice is not ideal viewing for an infant. I'm just hoping the added snuggle time with her pops helps to balance things out.
It's hard to describe or explain why it makes me so happy when Annabelle surveys her toy box and opts to grab her hockey stick first. It's a pang of totally irrational pride that I know is irrational but still happily indulge. I think it's because I want to teach Annabelle about her heritage and culture, and the other things that make up my identity.
I want Annabelle to learn about our family traditions. I look forward to showing her how to spread masa on a corn husk, or one day watching her try to find the afikoman at my in-laws' during passover. And I can't wait for the day when she tells me which name she wants on the back of her Red Wings jersey.
I will support Annabelle's interests and passions 100 percent. I'm as excited for all the things she's going to teach me as I am for the things I get to share with her. But boy oh boy do I hope she grows up to love the Red Wings.
As a son of the Midwest, I grew up watching the classic battles of the Norris Division. This blog is my tribute to the frozen game. It's a place for me to share thoughts and ideas about the sport I love above all others. I've invited friends to post their thoughts here as well. I hope you enjoy. - Adam
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Sunday, April 12, 2015
2015 NHL playoff preview
Playoff hockey has arrived. But instead of wading through each matchup and painstakingly parsing each series, I’m just going to look at the cup contenders and consider their chances.
Here is what I consider when choosing contenders:
On to the contenders
No surprise here. Chicago has the closest thing to a team that could almost compete in the pre-cap era. The cap-circumventing deals for Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, three players obtained in trades whose original teams retained 50% salary and the salary they were able to add by putting Pat Kane on long-term injured reserve means the Blackhawks are icing a roster being paid closer to $76 million than the actual cap limit of $69 million (I think, I’m bad at math). With Kane and Toews set to raise the team cap number by $8 million next season, there’s no doubt changes are on the horizon for Chicago. If that fact turns into a motivator, I could easily see the team steamroll through the playoffs as a last hurrah for this group of players.
That said, Kane needs to be healthy. When you look at the Blackhawk’s possession stats for the season, they’ve ranked fourth at 53.7%, mostly through peppering a ton of shot attempts at the opposing goal (second most in the NHL). However, when you look at play since January 1, a big chunk of which Kane missed, the Blackhawks drift down to 11th place in Corsi (52.4%) and are only plus 1 at even strength. And with the team ranking only 14th in goals, they will need every minute they can get from a gamebreaker like Kane.
Similar to the San Jose Sharks, the Blues seem to be a team that is always excelling, always in the conversation as a contender, but never quite pulls it off. Things could finally be aligning for the Blues. Chicago might be dinged up. Los Angeles is already out. Ken Hitchcock has continued the team’s evolution from defense-at-all-costs to one that puts up some serious goals (5th most in the NHL). Young players like Vlad Tarasenko and Jaden Scwartz have certainly helped in that regard, offering a missing element from the older core forwards Backes, Oshie and Steen.
Two points of concern. The Blues are only the 10th ranked possession squad (52.4%), but they’ve been better recently. The other point of worry? Who plays between the pipes. Brian Elliott and Jake Allen have each spent stretches of the season vacillating between lights-out and less than stellar play. Still, the recent success by the Kings and Blackhawks show that in the modern NHL you don’t necessarily need Dominik Hasek in net to bring home the gold.
The best possession team since January 1 … is the LA Kings. But just behind the Kings are the team that just edged them for a playoff spot - the Winnipeg Jets (at 54.4% Corsi). The Jets actually were the 6th best possession team over the entire season, making their return to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 no fluke. While the Jets are only middle of the road offensively, what I like about them is their possible road to the cup. The Jets as the low wildcard team move over to the Pacific division for the playoffs and get to by facing the always overrated Ducks, followed by one of the other two weakest teams in the West, the Flames or Canucks.
Now if Ondrej Pavelec reverts to his career form, all bets are off. Still, it’s going to be exciting to see a return of the Winnipeg whiteout for the playoffs. I think it should be mandatory for sports bars to use the audio from the Jets home games during the playoffs.
Saying the New York Rangers are a favorite to repeat as Eastern Conference champs is not exactly going out on a limb. Much like the Blackhawks it’s now or never for New York. I think they’ve traded away every first-round pick through the end of the CBA. So it’s time to get busy living or get busy dying.
They’ve scored the fourth-most goals while giving up the third-fewest. They have star players, young speedsters, maybe the best blueline in hockey and a hall of fame goalie. Plus they gained a whole lot of playoff experience last year. It’s pretty dang hard to poke holes in the Rangers. But I’ll try.
As good as the results have been for the President’s Trophy winning team, the possession numbers do not look as good. They actually ranked 18th in Corsi directing just over 50% of shots at the opposing goal. The other red flag is that the Rangers have the highest PDO in the NHL at 101.7 as a result of having a top 5 shooting percentage and top save percentage. Meaning they’re due for a change of luck. What happens if their scorers suddenly go cold? What if that coincides with a few unlucky goals bouncing in at the wrong time. And will that shift happen before the cup is handed out? Add to that the long odds of making it to the final in back-to-back years and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blueshirts run out of gas.
If I were actually placing money on a team to win it all, I’d bet on the Lightning. They’ve scored the most goals, are in the top 10 defensively and are tied for second overall in Corsi for the season. But on top of the numbers, the teams construction is just excellent. All of their key contributors are either just entering or in the heart of their prime production years. Even their key veterans are not yet 31. GM Steve Yzerman had the best signing of the off-season when he inked top pair defenseman Anton Stralman, one of the key drivers behind the Rangers success last playoffs. And on top of it all, they have 19-year-old Jonathan Drouin, two years after being drafted third overall, showing signs of starting to finally click at the NHL level.
The one weakness has been the play of goalie Ben Bishop who ranks dead last in even-strength save percentage among playoff starters. But Bishop is just one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. If he can get back to even half of where he was last year the Bolts could be unstoppable.
I really think the East comes down to either the Rangers or Lightning. They're just better than the rest of the conference. There are too many question marks about every other team.
So I guess if I had to make a prediction, I would go with some new blood. Bolts over Blues in the final.
What makes a cup contender?
Here is what I consider when choosing contenders:
- Does the team score goals? Scoring becomes so hard in the playoffs. Teams that have both depth scoring and elite players who put the puck in the net have a real advantage. More so than the teams that count on winning 1-0 or 2-1. You need those timely goals by the bottom six forwards to get the early lead or have the unexpected OT winner. You need those elite players who can break open a defensive slog or be double-shifted when the game gets late and your team has the goalie pulled.
- Does the team control play? If you’ve ever played golf, you’ve heard the saying about your bomb of a drive counting just as much toward your score as that three-foot-putt you missed at the end. Well, in hockey fluke goals that bounce in off the defenseman's skate or get knocked in by the goalies butt count just as much as the perfectly placed snipe or tic-tac-toe tap-ins. What that means is the team that consistently directs more shots at the net is going to have better odds of winning. It’s science. That’s also what the stats Corsi and Fenwick measure (do I have to keep explaining this or is everyone caught up on the basic “fancy stats”?)
- Is the team’s success attributed to it’s play or is it just riding a lucky hot streak by its goalie or shooters? Conversely, is an “under performing” team actually about to come out of a funk? Remember how I mentioned those fluke goals in the last point? Those generally even out over a season. If all the bounces have gone your way, things are likely to swing back around sooner than later.
- Health. This one can’t be predicted, but an injury to a key player can pretty much change the entire dynamic of a series in a single moment.
On to the contenders
The West
Chicago Blackhawks
No surprise here. Chicago has the closest thing to a team that could almost compete in the pre-cap era. The cap-circumventing deals for Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, three players obtained in trades whose original teams retained 50% salary and the salary they were able to add by putting Pat Kane on long-term injured reserve means the Blackhawks are icing a roster being paid closer to $76 million than the actual cap limit of $69 million (I think, I’m bad at math). With Kane and Toews set to raise the team cap number by $8 million next season, there’s no doubt changes are on the horizon for Chicago. If that fact turns into a motivator, I could easily see the team steamroll through the playoffs as a last hurrah for this group of players.
That said, Kane needs to be healthy. When you look at the Blackhawk’s possession stats for the season, they’ve ranked fourth at 53.7%, mostly through peppering a ton of shot attempts at the opposing goal (second most in the NHL). However, when you look at play since January 1, a big chunk of which Kane missed, the Blackhawks drift down to 11th place in Corsi (52.4%) and are only plus 1 at even strength. And with the team ranking only 14th in goals, they will need every minute they can get from a gamebreaker like Kane.
St. Louis Blues
Similar to the San Jose Sharks, the Blues seem to be a team that is always excelling, always in the conversation as a contender, but never quite pulls it off. Things could finally be aligning for the Blues. Chicago might be dinged up. Los Angeles is already out. Ken Hitchcock has continued the team’s evolution from defense-at-all-costs to one that puts up some serious goals (5th most in the NHL). Young players like Vlad Tarasenko and Jaden Scwartz have certainly helped in that regard, offering a missing element from the older core forwards Backes, Oshie and Steen.
Two points of concern. The Blues are only the 10th ranked possession squad (52.4%), but they’ve been better recently. The other point of worry? Who plays between the pipes. Brian Elliott and Jake Allen have each spent stretches of the season vacillating between lights-out and less than stellar play. Still, the recent success by the Kings and Blackhawks show that in the modern NHL you don’t necessarily need Dominik Hasek in net to bring home the gold.
Dark Horse - Winnipeg Jets
The best possession team since January 1 … is the LA Kings. But just behind the Kings are the team that just edged them for a playoff spot - the Winnipeg Jets (at 54.4% Corsi). The Jets actually were the 6th best possession team over the entire season, making their return to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 no fluke. While the Jets are only middle of the road offensively, what I like about them is their possible road to the cup. The Jets as the low wildcard team move over to the Pacific division for the playoffs and get to by facing the always overrated Ducks, followed by one of the other two weakest teams in the West, the Flames or Canucks.
Now if Ondrej Pavelec reverts to his career form, all bets are off. Still, it’s going to be exciting to see a return of the Winnipeg whiteout for the playoffs. I think it should be mandatory for sports bars to use the audio from the Jets home games during the playoffs.
The East
The New York Hockey Rangers
Saying the New York Rangers are a favorite to repeat as Eastern Conference champs is not exactly going out on a limb. Much like the Blackhawks it’s now or never for New York. I think they’ve traded away every first-round pick through the end of the CBA. So it’s time to get busy living or get busy dying.
They’ve scored the fourth-most goals while giving up the third-fewest. They have star players, young speedsters, maybe the best blueline in hockey and a hall of fame goalie. Plus they gained a whole lot of playoff experience last year. It’s pretty dang hard to poke holes in the Rangers. But I’ll try.
As good as the results have been for the President’s Trophy winning team, the possession numbers do not look as good. They actually ranked 18th in Corsi directing just over 50% of shots at the opposing goal. The other red flag is that the Rangers have the highest PDO in the NHL at 101.7 as a result of having a top 5 shooting percentage and top save percentage. Meaning they’re due for a change of luck. What happens if their scorers suddenly go cold? What if that coincides with a few unlucky goals bouncing in at the wrong time. And will that shift happen before the cup is handed out? Add to that the long odds of making it to the final in back-to-back years and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blueshirts run out of gas.
The Tampa Bay Lightning
If I were actually placing money on a team to win it all, I’d bet on the Lightning. They’ve scored the most goals, are in the top 10 defensively and are tied for second overall in Corsi for the season. But on top of the numbers, the teams construction is just excellent. All of their key contributors are either just entering or in the heart of their prime production years. Even their key veterans are not yet 31. GM Steve Yzerman had the best signing of the off-season when he inked top pair defenseman Anton Stralman, one of the key drivers behind the Rangers success last playoffs. And on top of it all, they have 19-year-old Jonathan Drouin, two years after being drafted third overall, showing signs of starting to finally click at the NHL level.
The one weakness has been the play of goalie Ben Bishop who ranks dead last in even-strength save percentage among playoff starters. But Bishop is just one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. If he can get back to even half of where he was last year the Bolts could be unstoppable.
Dark Horse - The Field
I really think the East comes down to either the Rangers or Lightning. They're just better than the rest of the conference. There are too many question marks about every other team.
- Montreal has the best goalie, but can he keep the run going? If not, they're going home early. Especially with Max Pacioretty's injury depleting an already weak offense.
- Detroit has been the third best possession team all season, but primarily by limiting the number of shots, not producing shots/goals. And the continued decline of Jimmy Howard puts a cloud of uncertainty over the team. Maybe they won't waste time with Howard and play virtual rookie Pete Mrazek, but how far can he carry them?
- The New York Islanders have been a strong scoring/possession team, but like the Red Wings have failed to get consistency in net.
- The Penguins are too banged up and still have a headcase for a goalie.
- The team I'm most tempted by is the Washington Capitals. If Holtby gets hot and Ovechkin continues his improbable goal-scoring rate, the caps could be a very tough out this year.
So I guess if I had to make a prediction, I would go with some new blood. Bolts over Blues in the final.
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