Stanley Cup favorites: Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings

With the playoffs here, it's time to wrap up my overviews of the teams I see as cup contenders. You can read my previous team posts here (Pittsburgh | Montreal | Boston | St. Louis).

Chicago Blackhawks

It's not exactly going out on a limb to call the Blackhawks a cup contender. The team dominated the Western Conference earning 80% of the possible points (for a total of 77), scoring the second most goals in the league (155) and surrendering a league low 102. The last team to come close to that percentage of points was the 1995 Detroit Red Wings (79.9%), and they set the NHL record for most wins in a season. 

This domination is a reflection of how complete Chicago is. In many ways Chicago is the ideal team of the modern, youth dominated NHL. The team is using young, upcoming depth players matched by a veteran core that is still in the heart of its prime. Seventeen Blackhawks have at least 10 points and that includes their entire defensive core. It is true that Chicago did benefit from a high PDO (1019), good for third highest in the league, but unlike the Leafs or the Ducks, the Blackhawks have the second highest Fenwick close percentage in the NHL (55.8 %). Clearly the better than sustainable team shooting and save percentages helped Chicago to this historic season, but the talent and execution this team displayed cannot be denied. 

Any thing less than a conference finals appearance by this team would be a failure and huge upset. That being said, I do think one other team may actually be more of a cup favorite.

Los Angeles Kings

It appears the L.A. Kings are not just content to try to repeat as champions, but wish to also repeat history. Much like last year the team has closed the season strong after a shaky start. And just like last year, a trip to the finals would require beating most of the top teams in the conference. The team has again been dominating the puck possession numbers. Unfortunately, due to poor shooting and save percentages those numbers did not translated into wins on the ice earlier in the season (L.A ranked 22nd in PDO). After a super human effort by Jonathan Quick last year, the netminder returned to Earth in 2013. Had Quick played a little better, or perhaps had the Kings the  benefit of a full season, I have little doubt the team would have caught and passed the Ducks for the division title.

The Kings are dominating puck possession with the highest Fenwick close percentage in the league (57.35). This type of puck possession historically translates into a deep playoff run. With most of last year's cup-winning squad still intact, the Kings are in a unique position in a league where potent teams often need to be dismantled due to the salary cap.
Still, there are difficult obstacles facing the Kings. L.A. has a stiff first-round matchup with St. Louis Blues, another strong puck possession team. That very well could be the best series of the opening round. There is also a reason no team has repeated since '97-'98: It's really hard to survive that grind while also staying healthy and catching enough breaks to keep winning.

I honestly think if the Kings meet the Blackhawks it would be a seven-game coin flip. It would also be one heck of a series. But my gut tells me the Kings are poised again to see a reverse in their puck luck at the right time, and give us the best chance we've had since the 2008 Red Wings to see the first post-cap repeat champion.

Stanley Cup Favorites: St. Louis Blues

Now that I've looked at the top teams in the East, it's time to turn my attention to the West. If you want to catch up on my other contender overviews, you can check them out here (Pittsburgh | Montreal | Boston).

St. Louis

St. Louis has struggled in this short season, coming nowhere close to the performance they showed last year. But that should not be too surprising given how fantastically things fell into place in 2012. I have little doubt that had there been a full 82 game season this year, the Blues could have made things much tighter in the race for the Central Division.

After a few years in the wilderness, the Blues were able to stock up on talent and that shows in their depth. But unlike many of the other teams drafting in the lottery St. Louis did no emerge with any offensive superstars. Vladamir Tarasenko may get there one day, but he's not there yet. However, the Blues do have a lot of players who chip in. This season they have 13 players with at least 10 points. Once the playoffs start, this will make it harder for the opposition to focus on any one line to shutdown.

The Blues' true strength is on the backend. They may have the best blueline in the league. Alex Pietrangelo is likely to be a Norris finalist in the near future. Kevin Shattenkirk may not be far behind. The addition of Jay Bouwmeester gives the Blues another top defender who can eat up hard minutes. All this forward and defense depth adds up to great puck possession numbers. The Blues Fenwick close number is almost 54% (53.79), which is good for 5th in the league.

The goaltending has been a little more suspect, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak are the main reason the Blues have struggled. Both goalies have had injuries, and some bad puck luck has likely contributed (the Blues PDO is ranked 22nd at 990). If one or both of these netminders can get healthy and sharp, the Blues could get on a deep playoff run.

The team's early struggles no doubt will make it harder to reach the Stanley Cup final. St. Louis could possibly have to go through LA, Vancouver and Chicago to get there. But it seems the ship has been righted and good puck possession numbers have a strong correlation to playoff success. The Blues' top players are all in their prime. I have not forgotten the great expectations at the start of the year. This team might be on the verge of seeing some of that bad puck luck turn around at just the right time.

10 short thoughts on the Wings-Coyotes game

Just wanted to share a few observations from tonight's game.

1. The in-game crew for NBC Sports called Shane Doan one of the best leaders in the NHL of all time. Unfortunately, I was the only one around to enjoy my spit take.
2. I really can't stand Pierre McGuire, but the fact that he relayed Shane Doan's trash talk to Justin Abdelkader was fantastic. "You play on a line with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and you only have 11 points? You should be ashamed." Indeed.
3. That being said, this might have been the best game I've seen from Abdelkader in a long time. He was hitting everything in sight, causing turnovers, going hard to the net and got into the head of the Coyotes. He was basically what you'd wish Jordan Tootoo would be.
4. Speaking of, is it possible Tootoo has a concussion? He just has not looked very sharp. He seems to always be a little off on his hits. I would not be shocked if something is not right with him.
5. Who is bringing that stupid train whistle? That person should be banned, leave that crap in Nashville.
6. Dan Cleary is still the worst. I know it's too much to hope that Holland does not sign him after the season, but please let it be for a cheap, one-year contract (and not three years with a number starting with a two). I will be ecstatic the first time I read the words "Daniel Cleary: Healthy scratch." 
7. I'm starting to like this Andersson, Brunner, Nyquist line. They've got speed, creativity and backcheck like crazy.
8. Speaking of strong rookies: That Danny Dekeyser is giving me Ericsson rookie playoffs flashbacks. I still can't believe Detroit is playing five rookies, all in pretty significant roles.
9. Doan, the Coyotes' top scorer, taking himself out of the game for 4 minutes late in the third period with the season on the line is the kind of thing that cements you as one of the all time greatest NHL leaders. Sadly, Mike Milbury blasted him for this idiocy, which means he and I agree. Yikes.
10. Datsyuk passing up a sure goal so Abdelkader could then fail to score on the empty net was perfect.

Stanley Cup favorites: Boston Bruins

It's time to return to my series previewing the teams I consider legitimate cup contenders. If you're interested, here is my take on the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Montreal Canadiens. Today, I'll finish up the Eastern Conference favorites with the team I believe to be the best in the East.

Boston

In my view there is no more complete team in the East. The mighty Bruins are a little less than two years removed from their last Stanley Cup. At the time they combined amazing goaltending and defense with a group of talented but tough forwards who did not let the opposition touch the puck very often. Little has changed for the Bruins.

The blue line

The defense is still anchored by the massive Zdeno Chara. The 35-year-old veteran remains one of the higher scoring defenseman in the league, but, most importantly continues to eat up nearly 25 minutes of ice a night. He faces the toughest competition and yet still has one of the top 30 Corsi numbers among defenseman, meaning when he's on the ice the shots are going the other direction. The staunch blue-line has also been bolstered by the sensational rookie defenseman Dougie Hamilton. At age 19, the rookie is playing 17 minutes a night and though he's facing lighter competition, has a better Corsi number than Chara, and only trails him by 2 points. And on top of that, the Bruins added Wade Redden before the trade deadline.

The forwards

Boston's unlikeable forward core remains little changed from the cup year. Marchand,  Bergeron, Seguin, Krejci, Horton, and Lucic are either entering or in their prime and provide excellent talent up and down the lineup. Bergeron, in particular, has slowly morphed into perhaps the most complete player in the league. He has a good chance at winning his second Selke trophy as the best defensive forward, he's dominated the face-off circle (62%), and scored at almost a point a game pace. With the salary cap, most teams do not have the depth to roll four lines, but the Bruins do. That depth gives them the luxury of playing trade acquisition Jaromir Jagr on the third line. By the way, Jagr's 33 points are still 5 better than the man Boston missed out on first, Jerome Iginla.

Goaltending

The biggest change for the Bruins this year was the switch in net from Tim Thomas to Tuukka Rask. The 26-year-old Finlander has been outstanding, posting nearly a .93 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average. Rask has yet to carry a huge number of games over a long season, but he's nearly always been excellent in his young career. His career numbers .927 SV% and 2.15 GAA are actually better than Thomas' (.921 SV% and 2.48 GAA). Yet, Rask has not been lauded with the same praise. A deep playoff run this year could cement Rask in the Vezina conversation for years to come.

Given Boston's immense depth, it should be no surprise that they are the best puck possession playoff team in the conference with a Fenwick Close percentage of 53.91. Add everything up and Boston should again be in the Stanley Cup final. Of course, a huge amount of luck is involved in the playoffs and things could easily go against the Bruins. Boston will be in a dog fight to the end of the season with Montreal to secure the No. 2 seed in the East. That could mean the difference between playing Pittsburgh in the second round instead of the conference final. And despite allowing the third fewest goals this season, the excellent team depth has only translated into a league average offense (tied for 14th). And Boston has had a little better than average puck luck with a 1008 PDO. But the Bruins remain my pick to come out of the East, and that could set up an outstanding final series if one of the other recent cup winners in the West is there to meet them.

Welcome to the Bridgestone Winter Ordinary

I try not to be one of those people who hates everything for no other reason than that's what we all do now. But man, I'm really not a fan of the NHL's decision to add an additional five outdoor games to the Winter Classic. It's irrational to decry the cheapening of tradition when the tradition itself is only five years old and the entire enterprise was full of faux nostalgia and quite contrived to begin with. But since when have sports fans been rational?

The NHL very successfully built up mystique around the Winter Classic and it quickly became an exclusive event that every team wanted to host. Reports abound about what a cash cow the Winter Classic is for the league and the teams involved. But for the fan it felt like this was a reward for them as well. Participating in the Winter Classic was validation that your team was an important and respected franchise. And you could feel a part of that success because the fan-base had been deemed worthy to support such a big event. This was not an All Star game in Columbus, Ohio or an entry draft in Nashville, Tenn. This was the WINTER CLASSIC.

But already the announcement has made the outdoor extravaganza feel more routine, more ordinary. To attend the Winter Classic most teams require you to buy tickets to all of the supporting games and events. Hundreds of thousands of fans have been willing to pay the price, because after all, you'd be able to say you were one of the lucky ones to see that rare game in person. But will that still be the case when this changes from a once-a-decade phenomena to something that you'll have the opportunity to attend a few times a season (at least if you're the New York Rangers)?

What will these changes mean for the partnership with HBO? Probably my favorite part of the Winter Classic has been the fantastic 24/7 series. Even when I despised both teams involved, seeing the inside the dressing room view drove up my interest in the actual game. I doubt HBO will be doing a series for each outdoor game, and if the novelty of the Winter Classic itself wears off, how long will they continue with the original series?

And I just can't shake the feeling that this is somehow Gary Bettman's pay back to the rich franchises for going along with his lockout.

But in the end, the biggest thing that annoys me about this is the NHL again taking for granted something great for short-sighted gain. Last Sunday's episode of Mad Men captured this problem perfectly when a local car dealer tried to push Don Draper away from the sophisticated national campaign on Jaguar to include local radio spots to boost dealership walk-ons. Don knew Jaguar was a luxury product, that it should feel exclusive, that what makes it great is precisely the fact that average Joes aren't buying it. Sometimes it's not about how many dollars you're bringing in, but where those dollars are coming from. It's not hard to imagine how the NHL's dilution of the Winter Classic actually results in the end of outdoor games. Four years from now when every team in the league has participated in one, how many people are really going to show up to the Rose Bowl to watch the Ducks play the Seattle Coyotes?

Stanley Cup favorites: Montreal Canadiens

This is part two of my series on the teams I view as the Stanley Cup favorites. You can read part one on the Pittsburgh Penguins here.

Montreal

After last year when the Canadiens finished dead last in the Eastern conference I did not expect them to rebound this quickly. But have they ever! In this sprint of a season the Candiens have been invigorated by rookies Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk, the resurgence of a healthy Andrei Markov, and most of all the emergence of a trio of young stars entering their prime Carey Price, Max Pacioretty, and P. K. Subban.

Montreal has rebounded from being a below average scoring team last year (19^th overall) to ranking 5^th in goals scored. This has been driven by the power play. Montreal is ranked 4^th in power play percentage (21.89%) but has scored a league leading 37 PPGs due to the fact that they’ve also drawn the most penalties in the league. And Montreal is drawing all of these penalties because it usually has the puck. The Canadiens Fenwick Close number ranks 4^th in the league at 53.57%. The team’s PDO (combined shooting and save percentage) is a little high (1013), good for 9^th in the league. Their luck may have started to turn, as they gave up 12 goals in the past two games. But the strong puck possession numbers suggest their place among the Eastern conference elite is not a fluke.

The NHL playoffs are always unpredictable, and anything can happen, especially in the first round. But with its power play supplying the offense and a decent chance that Price gets hot, Montreal could have a recipe for a deep playoff run coming almost 20 years since Les Habitants last raised Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Stanley Cup favorites: Pittsbirgh Penguins

As the shortened season begins to wind down I've been starting to think about the playoffs. Though the first-round pairings likely won't be set until the last few games are complete, it's not too early to take a look at the teams I think are most likely to take home the Stanley Cup. Up first, I'll look at the Eastern conference favorites.

Pittsburgh

With the exception of the Kings, most of the recent champions have been top 10 scoring teams. And LA was a different team last season after the Jeff Carter trade. Scoring is obviously Pittsburgh's strength, as only one other playoff team (Chicago) is even within 10 total goals. And after the trade deadline the commentate named them the clear winner. Pittsburgh will likely lock up the top seed for home ice throughout the playoffs. But I wouldn't give the Penguins the cup just yet.

Despite all the positives, when looking at the advanced stats there are some clear weaknesses for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is only 14th in Fenwick close (50.79), meaning when the game is close and 5-on-5, the Penguins are only slightly out-shooting the competition. Additionally, Pittsburgh also has the second highest PDO number in the league (1026). This is the result of the 3rd highest team save percentage and 5th highest shooting percentage. As I've mentioned in the past, shooting percentage and save percentage have a strong regression to the mean the more games you play. So I expect their goal scoring to slow down and at the same time their goalies to start letting a few more slip in. If the Penguins were dominating possession more with a higher Fenwick number, I would be more confident in their numbers and results.

Pittsburgh always seems to have the same big question marks: Goaltending and health. Marc-Andre Fleury is not a good goalie. You hear sometimes that he's a playoff veteran, and that is true. Pittsburgh has stuck with him despite 75 games of subpar goaltending (.904 SV% and 2.68 GAA). And though his numbers have been strong in 29 games this season, his career numbers suggest they won't last.

And as for health, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, James Neal, are players any team in the league would want. But they're also players who have struggled to stay on the ice. Only time will tell if the Penguins enter the playoffs as a fully armed and operational battle station.

Red Wings no longer doing goaltending on the cheap

Well, looks like Jimmy Howard's numbers finally came up. $5.3 million a year for the next six years. That is a serious commitment. The type of commitment Detroit has not really made to goalies in the past. Even when they were chasing down the top paid goalies in the league, those deals were at least for shorter term.

The advanced stats blogs have praised Detroit as being ahead of the curve in this regard. Most goalies fluctuate in performance from year-to-year. So unless you’re getting one of the few consistent performers (who usually command top dollar), you want to be careful.

For the past three years, Detroit has gotten a bargain with Howard. He’s played an average of 61 games and far out-performed his contract. Those days are over.

Starting next year at $5.3 million per year, Howard will have the 10^th highest salary among goalies and the 11^th highest cap hit.  (Thank you Cap Geek) Here is where Howard stacks up with the other top 20 cap hits.

Name	Age	Team	Expiry	Salary	Cap Hit
Rinne, Pekka »	30	NAS	2019	$7,000,000	$7,000,000
Lundqvist, Henrik »	31	NYR	2014	$5,125,000	$6,875,000
Price, Carey »	25	MTL	2018	$5,750,000	$6,500,000
Ward, Cam »	29	CAR	2016	$6,600,000	$6,300,000
Miller, Ryan »	32	BUF	2014	$6,250,000	$6,250,000
Lehtonen, Kari »	29	DAL	2018	$6,250,000	$5,900,000
Kiprusoff, Miikka »	36	CGY	2014	$1,500,000	$5,833,333
Quick, Jonathan »	27	LAK	2023	$7,000,000	$5,800,000
Bryzgalov, Ilya »	32	PHI	2020	$8,000,000	$5,666,667
Luongo, Roberto »	34	VAN	2022	$6,714,000	$5,333,333
Howard, Jimmy »	29	DET	2019	$5,300,000	$5,300,000
Fleury, M. »	28	PIT	2015	$5,750,000	$5,000,000
Hiller, Jonas »	31	ANA	2014	$4,500,000	$4,500,000
Brodeur, Martin »	40	NJD	2014	$5,000,000	$4,500,000
DiPietro, Rick »	31	NYI	2021	$4,500,000	$4,500,000
Schneider, Cory »	27	VAN	2015	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Pavelec, Ondrej »	25	WIN	2017	$3,500,000	$3,900,000
Niemi, Antti »	29	SJS	2015	$4,000,000	$3,800,000
Halak, Jaroslav »	27	STL	2014	$4,500,000	$3,750,000
Dubnyk, Devan »	26	EDM	2014	$3,750,000	$3,500,000
Anderson, Craig »	31	OTT	2015	$3,500,000	$3,187,500

Looking at the list, it seems Howard is now slotted in about the right place. Of the five guys right above him, I’d say only Quick and Luongo are better. Lehtonen cannot stay healthy, Kiprusoff is retiring and Bryzgalov is laughably overpaid. Similarly, Howard does not look out of place with the five guys below him.

Howard is not often going to steal a game, but usually, he’s not going to lose you the game either. When he’s on, he can be a top 5-10 goalie, but usually he’s going to slot in around the 10-15 spot statistically.

I’d say Howard is being fairly paid now. Had he hit the open market as a free agent, maybe he could have made more (though I find that a bit hard to believe). On the flip side, I would have liked this contract a lot more if it were only for three-four years. Six years is a long time for a player who is about to enter his 30s.

I wonder what this will mean for Detroit’s prospect Petr Mrazek. He has been fantastic in Grand Rapids as a 21-year-old rookie. If he duplicates that performance next year, it will be hard to leave him in the minors much longer.

And most of all, I wonder what this contract will mean for Detroit’s other free agents (mostly Filppula and Brunner). With the salary cap dropping $6 million and Howard getting a $3 million raise, that leaves just more than $12.5 million in cap space for nine players whose contracts are expiring this year.

Only time will tell if this contract works out to be a deal Ken Holland regrets.