Fighting over fighting

"People will tell you that loving tough hockey means loving enforcers. No. Guys like Janssen, Parros, they’re a very recent invention, a product of the last 30 years or so. For most of hockey history, there was no space on rosters for anyone who couldn’t play, and the famous old-time tough guys could carry the puck and throw a hit both. If anything, hockey was tougher when players, star or checker, fought their own battles, rather than downloading the entire team’s violence onto one or two marginal players."
- Ellen Etchingham, Backhand Shelf blog 

If you're regularly reading hockey blogs, you probably know about Cam Janssen's recent interview. If not, you can check it out here. I don't really care about anything he said, after all, the fact that we actually spend time asking professional athletes questions at all is kind of silly if you think about it. Professional athletes are famous for their amazing physical abilities and that has absolutely nothing to do with being an interesting or intelligent person. Why should we expect a wise and learned response from a group of people that consists of few college graduates and many (in the case of Canadian hockey players) high school drop-outs? Obviously, there are exceptions, but if you want philosophy, shouldn't you ask the philosopher (or at least someone who took a philosophy class)? So seeing headlines like "Hockey goon shares uneducated, offensive opinions" should shock exactly no one.

But the Janssen interview did prompt a very interesting post over at that the Backhand Shelf blog. The blogger, Ellen Etchingham disputes Janssen's views and more broadly, the idea that there remains honor in being a tough guy or "goon" in today's NHL. This is related to a broader question that I've been thinking about a lot more: Does fighting still have an important role in hockey? Obviously, that question has been going on for as long as I can remember (and I'm in my 30s!). But it's a question I've found myself answering differently lately.

When I was a kid, the Red Wings had the toughest team in hockey and I loved it. Not only did they have the toughest tough guy of all time, Bob Probert who could score goals as well as knockouts, they had several guys more than ready to drop the gloves. But despite their pugilistic prowess, the Red Wings didn't begin winning Stanley Cups until they opted for more of a skill game. They still had guys willing to fight on those teams, and some memorable brawls, but more often the Red Wings earned revenge not with fists but on the scoreboard.

That evolution only continued as the team transitioned from being Steve Yzerman's team to Nick Lidstrom's. And as my favored team changed, so has my taste in hockey. I used to love a good donnybrook as much as the next guy, but now I find I'm more interested in amazing displays of agility, coordination, hockey smarts, and effort. I love the pass no one saw coming, the quick turn that leaves the defender stunned, the perfect read that allows a defender to effortlessly disrupt the pass, the hard work that allows a back-checker to pick his opponent's pocket.

I'm sure a big part of my changing tastes resulted from the fact that the Red Wings just don't fight that much anymore. But I think the bigger part is the overall satisfaction that comes with your team winning cups. Sure, the 80s Wings could leave a game with heads high, knowing they had gotten the better of their opponents in the evening's dust-ups, but that's the kind of consolation prize you hold on to when the other team has won the contest that actually counts in the record books.

The other thing that is making me question fighting is the clear toll it takes on the players and the game. I don't think fighting is any worse now or players more violent than in the past. When you hear people complain about the lack of respect in today's NHL, I think about some of those Red Wings-Blackhawks clashes from the 80s. I distinctly remember one altercation involving pushing and shoving that quickly escalated when Gerard Gallant, one of my favorite players, cross-checked a Blackhawk directly in the mouth. And remember, this was in the days of tree-limb sticks, none of this carbon fiber stuff that snaps if you poke it just right. If this had happened in 2012, Gallant would have had the book thrown at him, maybe a 20 game suspension. Back in the 80s, I'm not sure, but he may have gotten a 2 minute roughing call, unless it went uncalled all together. So yeah, I don't really think the issue today is a change in the level of respect players have for one another.

No, I think what has changed is the understanding that people's brains are kind of fragile and repeated blows to the head can leave the brain with long-term damage that does not heal. Who knew?! This was really driven home for me with the devastating piece in The New York Times about Derick Boogard. The juxtaposition of the league cracking down with steep suspensions for checks that hit the head, while sticking to the same penalties for players who punch each other in the face now seems more than ludicrous.

I know a lot of people love hockey fights and contend that it keeps players honest. And truthfully, players taking care of business themselves is something I've always thought was distinct and enjoyable about hockey. Try watching an NBA game sometime. No matter how many times Dwayne Wade slides his feet under an opposing player as they come down from a jump-shot, hoping to cause a twisted ankle, no one is going to respond for fear of being tossed from the game. Self-policing is one reason I've held off from the view that fighting should be banned. And that's what I found so interesting about Etchingham's post, the idea that maybe self-policing and "the code" are already gone from the game.

If the enforcers of the NHL are no longer enforcing anything, how can we justify fighting in the face of the high price we now know players are going to pay? Yes, these guys know the risks and feel it is worth it for a few years of making a lot of money. But should that be good enough for us, just because we want to be entertained? I encourage you to read Etchingham's entire post. It got me thinking. The role of fighting in hockey has already changed, is it time for the league to change too?

So what's plan B, Red Wings?

Going into this off-season, there was no question this would be an uncertain time for my beloved Red Wings. Things have not gotten a whole lot better with Ryan Suter and Zach Parise both signing with the Wild. However, I don’t think it is the end of the world for the Wings. Detroit remains well positioned to make the playoffs. Had they signed Suter and Parise, you could make the case they would have been a cup favorite. And there are actually positives from Detroit’s standpoint for the way things shook out with “the big two.”

The main positive for every team in the Central division is that losing Suter has hit the Predators like a Tiger Uppercut. This comes on the heels of once again losing Alex Radulov to the KHL. And from the sounds of it, the loss of Suter has hit Shea Weber like, well, like someone grabbing his head and smashing it into plexiglass. I would be surprised if Weber signs a long-term deal with Nashville at this point, which almost guarantees Nashville GM David Poile will trade the captain. There’s no way he lets himself get burned again like he just did with Suter. Suddenly the Preds are looking at a lost decade.

Postive No. 2 for teams that did not sign Suter and Parise (who I will now forevermore refer to as Surise, pronounced sur-ee-say) – cap space! The Wild are handing Zach and Ryan nearly $200 million over the next 13 years. And $48 million is in the first two years. The contracts are identical and rank as the fourth richest in history behind only Crosby, Ovie and Kovulchuk. That’s pretty impressive for two guys who are not even the best players at their respective positions, let alone top 10 players in the league. So three or four years from now, all the teams losing out on Surise may look back and be glad they are free of that albatross. Heck, it could be a lot sooner than that. Who knows what the CBA is going to look like for next season? You might even be able to add Surise to the list of people regretting this decision. The Wild are not a very good hockey team. They just added some nice pieces, but are they now a cup contender? My gut feeling is they at best will be the new Phoenix/Nashville, good enough to make the playoffs every year, but usually exiting in the first or second round.

Speaking of teams that usually lose in the first or second round, how will Detroit pick up the pieces of their once proud franchise? Well, let’s take a look at what they’ve lost. To do so I’m going to look at the GVT (goals versus threshold) for the players leaving Detroit. Here’s a nice explainer of what GVT is. Basically, a hockey stat dork has used some fancy math equations and book learnin’ to try to represent every way a player impacts a game and quantify that into a simple number to make it easier to compare players. A player’s GVT represents how many more goals that player would help score/prevent over a year compared to the best AHLer not playing for your NHL team. So for example best AHLer’s GVT = zero, and Justin Abdelkader (slightly better than an AHLer) = a GVT of 3.9.

So how many GVT did Detroit lose? 28.1. That breaks down as follows:

• Nick Lidstrom (10) – Keep in mind he missed more games than usual
• Brad Stuart (9.3)
• Jiri Hudler (8)
• Thomas Holmstrom (0.8)

And in case you’re wondering, Ty Conklin had a GVT of negative 6.8 in only 15 games last season. I wish I were joking. Starting him was like spotting the other team at least half a goal. A negative 6.8 means he was actually substantially worse than if Detroit had just brought up an AHL goalie to back up Howard. Wait, that’s what Detroit was eventually forced to do! Joey MacDonald had a GVT of positive 2 over 14 games. And in case you’re excited to be rid of Conklin, don’t be. Detroit was able to beat out the competition and somehow sign one of the seven goalies who were actually worse than Conklin last year: Jonas Gustavsson (with his sparkling -7 GVT). It seems Ken Holland (a former mediocre goalie himself) has a soft spot for reclamation projects between the pipes. So how will Detroit replace the output of these players?

First let’s look at the forwards

Jordan Tootoo (3.7 GVT) is comparable to adding another Abdelkader to the lineup. He’ll hit, he’ll drop the gloves, he will probably score a little more, but he probably won’t contribute as much on the PK. Still, he’s a big step up on the fourth line from Holmstrom. Mikael Samuelsson (5 GVT) played only 54 games last year. If he’s healthy next year, he’s probably closer to a GVT of 6.5, and 40-50 points. I’d say together they will roughly equal and possibly surpass the contributions of Holmstrom and Hudler. If Patrick Eaves is able to return to form he will also add bottom six forward depth. Before a blocked shot cost Eaves nearly all of last season, he had chipped in a solid 4.7 GVT in the 2010-2011 season with his blend of timely goals (13) and strong PK play.

In addition, the departure of Holmstrom (I’m assuming he’s going to retire, PLEASE LET HIM RETIRE!) should open up more time for Gustav Nyquist, and that’s where things get interesting. Nyquist was good for 1.6 GVT and 7 points in somewhat limited use over 18 games last season (still better than Holmstrom who played 74 games and saw extensive power play time). Nyquist has almost always been at least a point-per-game player at every level of hockey he’s played. He had 144 points in 113 games over three years at the University of Maine. He followed that up with 58 points in 56 games in the AHL last year. If you prorate his 2011-12 GVT to an entire 82-game season you get 7.3 and almost 32 points. If he maintained that level of play he’d almost be equivalent to Hudler’s 8.0 GVT. And unlike Hudler, he’s still getting better. Of course, 18 games is a small sample size, so perhaps he ends up falling on his face over a full season. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Still, Detroit should continue trying to sign another forward or two and put their extra cap space to use. While many saw the Kings’ Stanley Cup victory as proof that only big teams can win now (not true), I think the better lesson is that balanced scoring and depth continue to be the recipe for success in the salary-cap era. I know Detroit also signed the leading Swiss-league scorer Damien Brunner, but it never hurts to go for a more known quantity. It sounds like Shane Doan (5.2 GVT) is interested in coming to Detroit, which does not knock me over, but could help the bottom 6 scoring depth. I think a better option would be to do what every national hockey journalist wants and sign Alex Semin to play on Datsuk’s wing.

Semin (12 GVT) is a highly skilled offensive player who for some reason has become the whipping boy for the Washington Captials’ playoff failures. Despite that, Semin remains a top six talent who can be acquired without giving up any pieces. To me, that makes him hands down a better option than Rick Nash (GVT 11), whom the Red Wings have inquired about. Semin is not as much of a pure goal scorer, but he does have a comparable points-per-game number (.87) to Nash’s (.81). And for the Blue Jackets to trade Nash to a rival inside their division, the asking price is likely to be too high to make a deal worthwhile. A better trade strategy would be to grab a surplus of forwards in free agency and turn that around into a trade for a top four defender. Which brings me to …

How will Detroit fill the chasm left by No. 5?

When Detroit traded a first-round pick for Kyle Quincey (6.5 GVT), it was eventually reported that it was not so much about loading up for a cup run, but a pre-emptive move to replace Stuart. I would not put this one among Ken Holland’s all time shrewd moves. After all, this is the same guy he’d previously drafted and lost on waivers for nothing. And Quincey isn’t on the same level as Stuart. But Stuart is clearly slowing down and Quincey has more good years ahead. Quincey is now the Wings third best defensemen, behind Kronwall (9.9 GVT) and White (10.4 GVT). That is, unless Brendan Smith can live up to the hype.

Like Nyquist, Smith had a successful college career and looked promising in limited action last season with a 2.5 GVT in 14 games. Had he played 30 games, his GVT likely would have passed Kindl (4.1) and Ericsson (4.9). Prorating his GVT to a full 82 games puts him at 14.6, which would have been the highest among the defenders on the team.

Again, 14 games is a small sample size, I certainly remember when Ericsson’s playoff run alongside Lidstrom made him look like yet another Red Wings draft steal. Now when I hear broadcasters boast “And Ericsson was the very last player taken in his entry draft, can you believe it?” I want to shout back “Yes! He looks exactly like someone who should have been taken last!” But unlike Ericsson, Smith was a first-round pick, and I think he’s going to show that he’s a first-round talent. He’s big, he takes the body, he’ll drop the gloves and he can run a power play. The question is; how fast can Smith step into the role of a top-four defenseman? That is why Detroit needs another veteran defenseman.

However, the remaining free agents are no better than anyone currently on the Red Wings roster. Ideally, they would pick up a player who could push Quincey or Smith out of the top four and that can only be achieved via trade. So who can they target? There are a handful of names being thrown around the hockey blogs as potentially on the move.

Keith Yandle (9.4 GVT). Yandle is slick and could replace Lidstrom’s offensive numbers immediately, though he’s not a shutdown defenseman. He is only 25, coming into his own, and has a great cap number of $5.25 million for the next four years. If Phoenix moves Yandle, Detroit has to pull out the stops to get him.

Tobias Enstrom (7.6 GVT). Enstrom has often been rumored to be on the way out (first with Atlanta and now Winnipeg). I have no idea why. He’s a solid, all-around defender who can put up 40-50 points in a season. Of course, he’s only one year away from being an unrestricted free agent. If the Jets can’t agree to an extension, they may well decide to move him. It could be worth it for the Wings to try to get ahead of the free agency frenzy and bring him in before his contract expires.

Jay Bouwmeester (6 GVT). Bouwmeester is like the bizarro Lidstrom. He almost never misses a game, only instead of leading his team to 20 straight playoffs, he’s never made it to the post-season. Granted, many of those years he was playing in empty arenas outside of Miami and he escaped that circus only to find himself in the inept hands of the Calgary Flames management. But if I were the Wings, I would stay away, because as Alec Baldwin said in Glengarry Glen Ross, a loser is a loser.

Dan Boyle (11.8 GVT). OK, this one probably can’t happen. Yes, the Sharks were kind enough to give Detroit a seventh-round pick for Stuart, even though everyone knew he was going to sign with San Jose at 12:01 July 1. But I don’t see these two teams coming together for a real trade. There is too much of a rivalry here (even if it is very one-sided). But … San Jose’s blue line is getting pretty crowded. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jason Demers and Douglas Murray are really coming along. You add in Brent Burns and the just signed Brad Stuart and you start to wonder how they’re going to split up 60 minutes of ice-time. Clearly San Jose is going to move a defenseman for another forward. Boyle is about to turn 36 and is making $6.6 million the next two seasons. He’s exactly the kind of old vet the Red Wings love and would be a perfect stopgap over the next two-three years while the they look to bring along their prospects and go after the next top free agent defensemen. And that’s probably why the deal would never come together.

It’s very unlikely that Detroit will be able to replace Lidstrom’s defensive ability, at least not with someone who also has his offensive ability. Teams just don’t hand away shutdown defenseman who can score. That is where missing out on Suter hurts the most. But if they are able to land Semin and/or Doan and possibly a sixth/seventh defenseman, that would give the team the latitude to use any of the following in a trade: a forward (Filppula/Franzen/Cleary), defenseman (Ericsson/Kindl), draft picks and a prospect. Pulling off a trade is never easy, especially with the NHL’s parity making every team think they are just a move away from a good playoff run. But if the Wings can make a deal for a top-four defenseman, they should see themselves once again safely in the warm embrace of the Stanley Cup playoffs.