The main positive for every team in the Central division is that losing Suter has hit the Predators like a Tiger Uppercut. This comes on the heels of once again losing Alex Radulov to the KHL. And from the sounds of it, the loss of Suter has hit Shea Weber like, well, like someone grabbing his head and smashing it into plexiglass. I would be surprised if Weber signs a long-term deal with Nashville at this point, which almost guarantees Nashville GM David Poile will trade the captain. There’s no way he lets himself get burned again like he just did with Suter. Suddenly the Preds are looking at a lost decade.
Postive No. 2 for teams that did not sign Suter and Parise (who I will now forevermore refer to as Surise, pronounced sur-ee-say) – cap space! The Wild are handing Zach and Ryan nearly $200 million over the next 13 years. And $48 million is in the first two years. The contracts are identical and rank as the fourth richest in history behind only Crosby, Ovie and Kovulchuk. That’s pretty impressive for two guys who are not even the best players at their respective positions, let alone top 10 players in the league. So three or four years from now, all the teams losing out on Surise may look back and be glad they are free of that albatross. Heck, it could be a lot sooner than that. Who knows what the CBA is going to look like for next season? You might even be able to add Surise to the list of people regretting this decision. The Wild are not a very good hockey team. They just added some nice pieces, but are they now a cup contender? My gut feeling is they at best will be the new Phoenix/Nashville, good enough to make the playoffs every year, but usually exiting in the first or second round.
Speaking of teams that usually lose in the first or second
round, how will Detroit pick up the pieces of their once proud franchise? Well,
let’s take a look at what they’ve lost. To do so I’m going to look at the GVT (goals
versus threshold) for the players leaving Detroit. Here’s a nice explainer
of what GVT is. Basically, a hockey stat dork has used some fancy math equations
and book learnin’ to try to represent every way a player impacts a game and
quantify that into a simple number to make it easier to compare players. A
player’s GVT represents how many more goals that player would help
score/prevent over a year compared to the best AHLer not playing for your NHL
team. So for example best AHLer’s GVT = zero,
and Justin Abdelkader (slightly better than an AHLer) = a GVT of 3.9.
So how many GVT did Detroit lose? 28.1. That breaks down as follows:- Nick Lidstrom (10) – Keep in mind he missed more games than usual
- Brad Stuart (9.3)
- Jiri Hudler (8)
- Thomas Holmstrom (0.8)
First let’s look at the
forwards
Jordan Tootoo (3.7
GVT) is comparable to adding another Abdelkader to the lineup. He’ll hit,
he’ll drop the gloves, he will probably score a little more, but he probably
won’t contribute as much on the PK. Still, he’s a big step up on the fourth
line from Holmstrom. Mikael Samuelsson (5
GVT) played only 54 games last
year. If he’s healthy next year, he’s probably closer to a GVT of 6.5, and 40-50 points.
I’d say together they will roughly equal and possibly surpass the contributions
of Holmstrom and Hudler. If Patrick Eaves is able to return to form he will
also add bottom six forward depth. Before a blocked shot cost Eaves nearly all
of last season, he had chipped in a solid 4.7
GVT in the 2010-2011 season with his blend of timely goals (13) and strong PK play.
In addition, the departure of Holmstrom (I’m assuming he’s
going to retire, PLEASE LET HIM RETIRE!) should open up more time for Gustav
Nyquist, and that’s where things get interesting. Nyquist was good for 1.6 GVT and 7 points in somewhat limited use over 18 games last season (still
better than Holmstrom who played 74 games and saw extensive power play time).
Nyquist has almost always been at least a point-per-game player at every level
of hockey he’s played. He had 144 points
in 113 games over three years at the University of Maine.
He followed that up with 58 points
in 56 games in the AHL last year. If
you prorate his 2011-12 GVT to an entire 82-game season you get 7.3 and almost 32 points. If he maintained that level of play he’d almost be
equivalent to Hudler’s 8.0 GVT. And
unlike Hudler, he’s still getting better. Of course, 18 games is a small sample
size, so perhaps he ends up falling on his face over a full season. But I
wouldn’t bet on it.
Still, Detroit should continue trying to sign another
forward or two and put their extra cap space to use. While many saw the Kings’
Stanley Cup victory as proof that only big teams can win now (not
true), I think the better lesson is that balanced scoring and depth
continue to be the recipe for success in the salary-cap era. I know Detroit
also signed the leading Swiss-league scorer Damien Brunner, but it never hurts
to go for a more known quantity. It sounds like Shane Doan (5.2 GVT) is interested
in coming to Detroit, which does not knock me over, but could help the bottom
6 scoring depth. I think a better option would be to do what every national
hockey journalist wants and sign Alex Semin to play on Datsuk’s wing.
Semin (12 GVT) is
a highly skilled offensive player who for some reason has become the whipping
boy for the Washington Captials’ playoff failures. Despite that, Semin remains
a top six talent who can be acquired without giving up any pieces. To me, that
makes him hands down a better option than Rick Nash (GVT 11), whom the Red Wings have inquired about. Semin is not as
much of a pure goal scorer, but he does have a comparable points-per-game number
(.87) to Nash’s (.81). And for the Blue Jackets to trade
Nash to a rival inside their division, the asking price is likely to be too high
to make a deal worthwhile. A better trade strategy would be to grab a surplus
of forwards in free agency and turn that around into a trade for a top four
defender. Which brings me to …
How will Detroit fill
the chasm left by No. 5?
When Detroit traded a first-round pick for Kyle Quincey (6.5 GVT), it was eventually reported
that it was not so much about loading up for a cup run, but a pre-emptive move
to replace Stuart. I would not put this one among Ken Holland’s all time shrewd
moves. After all, this is the same guy he’d previously drafted and lost on
waivers for nothing. And Quincey isn’t on the same level as Stuart. But Stuart
is clearly slowing down and Quincey has more good years ahead. Quincey is now the
Wings third best defensemen, behind Kronwall (9.9 GVT) and White (10.4 GVT).
That is, unless Brendan Smith can live up to the hype. Like Nyquist, Smith had a successful college career and looked promising in limited action last season with a 2.5 GVT in 14 games. Had he played 30 games, his GVT likely would have passed Kindl (4.1) and Ericsson (4.9). Prorating his GVT to a full 82 games puts him at 14.6, which would have been the highest among the defenders on the team.
Again, 14 games is a small sample size, I certainly remember when Ericsson’s playoff run alongside Lidstrom made him look like yet another Red Wings draft steal. Now when I hear broadcasters boast “And Ericsson was the very last player taken in his entry draft, can you believe it?” I want to shout back “Yes! He looks exactly like someone who should have been taken last!” But unlike Ericsson, Smith was a first-round pick, and I think he’s going to show that he’s a first-round talent. He’s big, he takes the body, he’ll drop the gloves and he can run a power play. The question is; how fast can Smith step into the role of a top-four defenseman? That is why Detroit needs another veteran defenseman.
However, the remaining free agents are no better than anyone currently on the Red Wings roster. Ideally, they would pick up a player who could push Quincey or Smith out of the top four and that can only be achieved via trade. So who can they target? There are a handful of names being thrown around the hockey blogs as potentially on the move.
Keith Yandle (9.4
GVT). Yandle is slick and could replace Lidstrom’s offensive numbers
immediately, though he’s not a shutdown defenseman. He is only 25, coming into
his own, and has a great cap number of $5.25 million for the next four years. If
Phoenix moves Yandle, Detroit has to pull out the stops to get him.
Tobias Enstrom (7.6
GVT). Enstrom has often been rumored to be on the way out (first with
Atlanta and now Winnipeg). I have no idea why. He’s a solid, all-around
defender who can put up 40-50 points
in a season. Of course, he’s only one year away from being an unrestricted free
agent. If the Jets can’t agree to an extension, they may well decide to move
him. It could be worth it for the Wings to try to get ahead of the free agency
frenzy and bring him in before his contract expires.Jay Bouwmeester (6 GVT). Bouwmeester is like the bizarro Lidstrom. He almost never misses a game, only instead of leading his team to 20 straight playoffs, he’s never made it to the post-season. Granted, many of those years he was playing in empty arenas outside of Miami and he escaped that circus only to find himself in the inept hands of the Calgary Flames management. But if I were the Wings, I would stay away, because as Alec Baldwin said in Glengarry Glen Ross, a loser is a loser.
Dan Boyle (11.8 GVT).
OK, this one probably can’t happen. Yes, the Sharks were kind enough to give
Detroit a seventh-round pick for Stuart, even though everyone knew he was going
to sign with San Jose at 12:01 July 1. But I don’t see these two teams coming
together for a real trade. There is too much of a rivalry here (even if it is
very one-sided). But … San Jose’s blue line is getting pretty crowded. Marc-Edouard
Vlasic, Jason Demers and Douglas Murray are really coming along. You add in Brent
Burns and the just signed Brad Stuart and you start to wonder how they’re going
to split up 60 minutes of ice-time. Clearly San Jose is going to move a
defenseman for another forward. Boyle is about to turn 36 and is making $6.6
million the next two seasons. He’s
exactly the kind of old vet the Red Wings love and would be a perfect stopgap
over the next two-three years while the they look to bring along their prospects
and go after the next top free agent defensemen. And that’s probably why the
deal would never come together.
It’s very unlikely that Detroit will be able to replace
Lidstrom’s defensive ability, at least not with someone who also has his
offensive ability. Teams just don’t hand away shutdown defenseman who can score.
That is where missing out on Suter hurts the most. But if they are able to land
Semin and/or Doan and possibly a sixth/seventh defenseman, that would give the
team the latitude to use any of the following in a trade: a forward (Filppula/Franzen/Cleary),
defenseman (Ericsson/Kindl), draft picks and a prospect. Pulling off a trade is
never easy, especially with the NHL’s parity making every team think they are just
a move away from a good playoff run. But if the Wings can make a deal for a
top-four defenseman, they should see themselves once again safely in the warm
embrace of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
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