Can the Blackhawks be stopped?

So far this season the Chicago Blackhawks have looked every bit the cup favorite they were expected to be and playing up to their potential for the first time since they won it all in 2010. This crazy points streak has made a couple things clear. Chicago is really, really good. And the NHL points system is maybe a bit stupid. Chicago has six points that would not have happened back in the old "tie" days of the NHL (as a result of three extra time losses and three shootout wins). Anaheim leads the league with seven fake points.

But unlike Anaheim, I think Chicago is the real deal. I think this because of the latest hot NHL stat: PDO. This stat is kind of like the puck luck stat. We've seen puck luck in action a million times. One team carries the play, peppering the other goalie with shot after shot, but can't score. Meanwhile, the team that never seems to have the puck somehow scores on every odd chance they seem to get.

PDO attempts to make sense of this by adding up a team's shooting percentage and team save percentage. Over an entire season, most teams eventually average out to numbers that add up to about 100%. 9% of their shots go in and their goalies stop about 91% of the shots they face. So a team whose PDO is higher than 100% is probably getting a little better puck luck than they will see in the future.

Chicago has definitely been lucky earning so many points this year, in part behind a higher team save percentage (93%) than is sustainable. But even when the puck luck turns against Chicago and that save percentage dips back toward a normal level around, their offense is still probably going to be enough to keep getting points out of most games.

Anaheim on the other hand, they are ready for a fall. At this point we should probably just call them "Last year's Minnesota." They are scoring on an above average number of shots (11.7%) and also saving more shots than they should (92%). This adds up to an ugly stretch of games where all the bounces seem to go the other way as the Ducks suddenly can't score or keep the puck out of their own net. The question is whether Anaheim's fast start will be enough to keep them in the playoff race once the luck turns.

Chicago on the other hand might be the best team in the league. Their forwards and defenseman are as deep as they come. And now that they are building on the best start in league history, they will have the ability to rest players more and keep fresh as this sprint of a season closes - putting them in the perfect position to bring the cup back to Chicago.

For comparisons sake, I looked up how some of the other fast start teams fared when all was said and done. The '06-'07 Sabres who held the best start record that Chicago just shattered made it to the conference finals before injuries decimated their cup hopes. The best start in Bettman's first lockout half-season back in '94-'95 went to the Penguins. They had the misfortune of running into the neutral zone trap of the eventual cup champion New Jersey Devils in the second round.

So while Chicago's historic start portends great things, come playoff time, they will still be at the mercy of the hockey gods and their fickle puck luck.